#266 overall · TEN · 48.0 projected half-PPR pts · -71.7 Draft Value
Gunnar Helm — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Gunnar Helm's 2025 season is the only NFL receiving history on record for him, and it is the entirety of his three-year aggregate: 55 targets, 44 receptions, 357 yards, and 2 touchdowns for Tennessee. That catch rate is clean, and the target volume, while modest, shows he was a functioning part of the offense. For a drafter willing to roster a late-depth tight end, the floor of involvement is at least established.
What the model projects
The projection is 48.0 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value is -71.7, placing him #266 overall and TE36 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting well below replacement level at the position. The projection is close to his 2025 output, which is the only data the model has to work with.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55 | 44 | 357 | 2 | 69.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 55 | 44 | 357 | 2 | 69.7 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide relative to the projection, which signals meaningful variance. The median simulated season lands at 46.1 points, close to the 48.0 projection. A bad season, bottom 10%, finishes at 9.7 points. A good season, top 10%, reaches 104.7 points. The 25th percentile is 23.5 and the 75th is 70.7. That upper tail is real: in the right circumstances, Helm can produce at a usable fantasy level. The downside, however, is near-zero production, and the median outcome is a bench-filler at best.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Helm is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. In practice, that means he is available as a free pickup in most drafts rather than a pick you need to spend. At TE36 and #266 overall, he belongs at the very back of a draft queue, rostered only after your starting tight end is secured and you are looking for a high-upside stash. His bye is Week 9, worth noting if you carry only one tight end. The p90 outcome of 104.7 points gives him a reason to exist on a roster; the -71.7 draft value gives you a clear-eyed sense of how likely that ceiling is to materialize.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 44 of 55 targets for 357 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. That is also the full extent of his NFL receiving history across the three-year aggregate window.
The projection is 48.0 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #266 overall and TE36, sitting in Tier 9 with a draft value of -71.7.
The p90 simulated season reaches 104.7 points, which is a meaningful ceiling. The p75 outcome is 70.7 points. Those tails exist, but the median simulated season is 46.1 points and the p10 floor is just 9.7, so the variance cuts both ways sharply.
Helm does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is effectively a post-draft waiver target rather than a pick you need to budget for.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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