Darnell Mooney — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The 2024 season is the clearest argument for Darnell Mooney. He posted 992 receiving yards, 64 receptions, 106 targets, and 5 receiving touchdowns, demonstrating that when volume is there, he can produce at a meaningful level. That target share, 106 in a single season, shows he is capable of functioning as a featured option in a passing offense. His three-year averages back that up to a degree: 79.7 targets, 42.3 receptions, and 616.3 receiving yards per season. Now with the New York Giants, he enters a situation where opportunity could again be available. For a drafter willing to roster a depth receiver late, the 2024 floor is the data point worth holding onto.

What the model projects

The projection for Mooney is 61.2 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value sits at -67.8, placing him #257 overall and WR87 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player projected below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline number; the median simulated season, at 42.6 points, runs below it, which signals the distribution is skewed by higher-end outcomes pulling the point estimate upward.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band on Mooney is wide. At the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, he finishes at 4.5 points, essentially a non-factor. The 25th percentile lands at 19.2 points, still a minimal fantasy contribution. The median simulated season is 42.6 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 76.5 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons produces 121.7 points. That gap between the p10 and p90, from 4.5 to 121.7, is among the widest variance profiles a drafter will encounter at this position tier. The 2025 season, in which he posted 443 yards, 32 receptions, 72 targets, and 1 touchdown while also fumbling twice, illustrates how quickly a season can compress. The 2024 season illustrates the ceiling. Both are real possibilities.

How to draft him

Mooney does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. In practice, that makes him a free agent in most drafts, available off the wire or as a final-round flier if he appears on a draft list at all. His rank of #257 overall and WR87 in Tier 9 put him at the outer edge of most snake-draft formats. Roster him only if you have secured your starting receiver corps and are looking for a high-variance dart throw with a real, if unlikely, upside scenario. His bye is Week 8, which is worth noting for lineup management if he does earn a roster spot.

In 2024 he posted 992 receiving yards, 64 receptions on 106 targets, and 5 receiving touchdowns. That is his best single-season output across the three years on record. His 2023 and 2025 seasons were considerably lighter, at 414 and 443 receiving yards respectively, so the 2024 line represents the ceiling of his recent range rather than a consistent baseline.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 121.7 half-PPR points. That is the top 10% of modeled outcomes. The 75th percentile is 76.5 points. Both require things to break in his favor; the median simulated season is only 42.6 points.

There is no market ADP available for Mooney, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable pick number. He is effectively undrafted in most leagues and would likely be available as a waiver addition rather than a draft-day selection.

The 10th-percentile simulated season is 4.5 points for the full year, and the 25th percentile is 19.2 points. His 2025 season, 443 yards, 32 receptions, 72 targets, 1 touchdown, and 2 fumbles, is a concrete example of what a below-median outcome looks like. The downside is real and the floor is low.