Kansas City Chiefs — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The Chiefs DST carries real pedigree in the turnover column. Over the past three seasons, the unit has averaged 10.3 interceptions and 6.7 fumble recoveries per year, with a three-year sack average of 43. The 2023 season stands as the high-water mark: 57 sacks, 8 interceptions, 9 fumble recoveries, and only 294 points allowed. That kind of production, when it surfaces, is what separates a streaming DST from a weekly starter. The unit also posted a shutout in 2025, one of the harder outcomes to achieve at the position. For a drafter willing to roster a DST with a volatile recent trend, the historical ceiling is documented.

What the model projects

The projection is 108.8 half-PPR fantasy points. The draft value is -37.0, placing the Chiefs DST at DST22 and #172 overall in Tier 9. That is below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The numbers reflect a unit whose recent stat lines have moved in a direction the projection takes seriously: sacks dropped from 57 in 2023 to 39 in 2024 to 33 in 2025, and fumbles forced fell from 15 to 15 to 8 over the same span. Points allowed climbed from 294 in 2023 to 326 in 2024 to 328 in 2025. The projection at 108.8 points sits where it sits.

The range of outcomes

The three-year history lays out the variance clearly. On the positive side, the 2023 season showed what this unit can do: elite sack totals, low points allowed, and consistent turnover production. On the negative side, the 2025 season featured 33 sacks, only 8 fumbles forced, 4 fumble recoveries, and 328 points allowed across the schedule, including three games where opponents scored 28-34 points. The points-allowed distribution in 2025 skewed toward the middle and upper ranges, with 8 games in the 14-20 band and 3 in the 28-34 band, compared to 2023's heavier concentration in the 14-20 band and zero games at 28-plus. The gap between the unit's ceiling and its recent floor is wide enough to matter in weekly lineup decisions.

How to draft him

The Chiefs DST is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick cost to plan around. At DST22 and #172 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -37.0, this is a late-round or post-draft addition in most 12-team formats. The bye is Week 5, which is early enough to require a streaming plan regardless. Roster him if he is available when you close out your draft, but do not adjust your draft strategy to target him. His Tier 9 placement reflects a projection below replacement level, and the recent trend in sacks and fumbles forced supports treating him as a depth option rather than a planned starter.

At DST22 and #172 overall with a draft value of -37.0, the projection of 108.8 points sits below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The unit has no market ADP, meaning the market is not drafting it consistently. It is best treated as a late-roster or streaming option rather than a planned pick.

Sacks went from 57 in 2023 to 39 in 2024 to 33 in 2025. Fumbles forced held at 15 in both 2023 and 2024 before dropping to 8 in 2025. Interceptions were 8 in 2023, 13 in 2024, and 10 in 2025. The three-year averages are 43 sacks, 12.7 fumbles forced, and 10.3 interceptions per season.

Points allowed were 294 in 2023, 326 in 2024, and 328 in 2025, for a three-year average of 316. The 2025 distribution included 3 games in the 28-34 points-allowed range and 1 shutout, alongside 8 games in the 14-20 band.

Their bye is Week 5. That is an early bye, so any drafter who rostered them as a starter would need a streaming replacement in place before the season is even a month old.