#71 overall · NE · 267.4 projected half-PPR pts · +0.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 55.4
Drake Maye — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Drake Maye's 2025 season was a genuine leap. He went from 338 pass attempts and 2,276 passing yards as a rookie to 492 attempts and 4,394 yards — nearly doubling his yardage total — while more than doubling his passing touchdowns from 15 to 31. He added 450 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns on 103 carries, giving him a dual-threat floor that keeps his fantasy ceiling intact even in weeks where the passing game stalls. His interception total dropped from 10 to 8, and his fumbles lost fell from 6 to 3. The trajectory is clean: more volume, more efficiency, fewer costly mistakes.
What the model projects
The projection is 267.4 half-PPR fantasy points, placing Maye at QB6 and #71 overall with a draftValue of +0.0 — right at replacement level for the position. He sits in Tier 9 on the board. The three-year aggregate context is useful here: averaged across 2023–2025, he has posted 3,335 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 435.5 rushing yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns per season — numbers that reflect the weight of his limited 2024 rookie campaign alongside his breakout 2025. The projection accounts for that full picture rather than extrapolating only from his best season.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 338 | 225 | 2276 | 15 | 10 | 54 | 421 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 183.1 |
| 2025 | 492 | 354 | 4394 | 31 | 8 | 103 | 450 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 355.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 415 | 289.5 | 3335 | 23 | 9 | 78.5 | 435.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | — | 8.5 | — | — | 278.3 |
The range of outcomes
Maye's dual-threat profile creates meaningful upside variance. The rushing contribution — 103 carries and 450 yards in 2025 — is a real fantasy multiplier if it holds, but it also introduces injury exposure that widens the downside band. On the turnover side, he still fumbled 8 times in 2025 (losing 3), so ball-security remains a live concern. A season in which the rushing volume is dialed back or the passing efficiency regresses toward his 2024 line would push him well below his projection. Conversely, if the 2025 passing volume and touchdown rate hold or improve, the upside is meaningfully above QB6.
How to draft him
Maye's market ADP is 55.4 — round 5, pick 7 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our model has him at #71 overall and QB6. In a single-QB league, the standard approach is to wait on the position, and Maye's +0.0 draftValue reflects that he projects right at replacement level — meaning the surplus he offers over a late-round streamer is minimal. If you are targeting him as your starter, round 5 is the window the market is currently setting. Plan accordingly and know your fallback if he comes off the board before your pick.
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Questions drafters ask
He went from 2,276 passing yards and 15 touchdowns in 2024 to 4,394 passing yards and 31 touchdowns in 2025 — nearly doubling his yardage and more than doubling his touchdown output. He also cut his fumbles lost from 6 to 3 and his interceptions from 10 to 8.
He is a genuine dual-threat. In 2025 he carried the ball 103 times for 450 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns, building on his 2024 rookie season of 54 carries for 421 yards and 2 scores. That rushing floor is a meaningful part of his fantasy value.
The projection is 267.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That places him at QB6 and #71 overall, with a draftValue of +0.0 — right at replacement level for the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
His market ADP is 55.4, which works out to round 5, pick 7 in a 12-team draft. That median is drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a reasonable but not definitive guide to when he will come off the board.