#55 overall · NE · 272.1 projected half-PPR pts · +12.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 52.0
Drake Maye — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Drake Maye's 2025 season is the foundation of the argument. He threw for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns against 8 interceptions on 492 attempts, completing 354 passes. He added 450 rush yards and 4 rushing touchdowns on 103 carries. That is a full-season workload with genuine dual-threat production. The fumble count bears watching: 8 fumbles in 2025, 3 lost, following 9 fumbles and 6 lost in 2024. The three-year average sits at 8.5 fumbles per season. That is a real cost in half-PPR scoring. Even so, the 2025 stat line represents a substantial step forward from his 2024 debut, when he posted 2,276 pass yards, 15 pass touchdowns, and 421 rush yards in a shorter run of action. The trajectory is pointed in the right direction, and the rushing floor gives him a scoring path that pure pocket passers do not have.
What the model projects
The projection is 272.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Maye at QB3 and #55 overall, sitting in Tier 8. His draft value is +12.6 points above replacement level at the quarterback position, meaning the projection has him delivering a surplus over what a freely available QB would provide. The projection is close to his 2025 median simulated season of 269.7 points, so the point estimate and the typical simulated outcome are well aligned.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 338 | 225 | 2276 | 15 | 10 | 54 | 421 | 2 | 9 | 183.1 |
| 2025 | 492 | 354 | 4394 | 31 | 8 | 103 | 450 | 4 | 8 | 355.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 415 | 289.5 | 3335 | 23 | 9 | 78.5 | 435.5 | 3 | 8.5 | 278.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the 10th percentile, simulated seasons bottom out at 115.2 points: a genuinely bad year. The 25th percentile is 210.6, the median 269.7, the 75th percentile 329.5, and the 90th percentile 376.1. That is a spread of roughly 261 points from the bad tail to the great tail. The upside case at p90 is a legitimately high-end QB season. The downside case at p10 is a near-total bust. Maye's fumble history is one real driver of that lower tail: 6 fumbles lost in 2024 and 3 in 2025 represent scoring that evaporates. Drafters who land the p90 version get a QB1 well above his draft cost; those who land the p10 version are looking for a replacement mid-season. That variance is the central tension in his profile.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Maye going at pick 52.0, which works out to round 5, pick 4 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms. Our rankings place him at #55 overall and QB3. In a 12-team half-PPR format, round 5 is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. If you are running a late-QB strategy, Maye is the kind of QB3 profile that makes it viable: a positive draft value, a rushing floor, and a ceiling that reaches into genuine QB1 territory at the 90th percentile. His bye is Week 11, which is a manageable but not trivial scheduling note for playoff-week planning. The fumble rate is the one number to keep in mind: it has been elevated in both seasons on record, and it is baked into the projection. Go in with eyes open on that, and the rest of the profile holds up.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 272.1 half-PPR points with a draft value of +12.6 above replacement, and he ranks QB3 and #55 overall in Tier 8. That is a positive-value starting QB. The outcome band runs from 115.2 at the 10th percentile to 376.1 at the 90th, so the variance is real, but the median simulated season of 269.7 points supports using him as a starter.
It is meaningful. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 115.2 points, and the 25th percentile is 210.6. Maye also has a documented fumble problem: 9 fumbles in 2024 (6 lost) and 8 in 2025 (3 lost), for a three-year average of 8.5 fumbles per season. That lower tail is real and should factor into how much draft capital you are comfortable committing.
Market ADP has him going at pick 52.0, round 5, pick 4 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms. If you want him, that is the window where you would need to spend a pick.
In 2025 he carried 103 times for 450 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. In 2024 he had 54 rush attempts for 421 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. The three-year average is 78.5 rush attempts and 435.5 rush yards per season. That is a consistent on-the-ground presence that adds a scoring floor beyond his passing line.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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