#240 overall · NO · 106.9 projected half-PPR pts · -61.9 Draft Value
Daniel Carlson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Daniel Carlson arrives in New Orleans with three full seasons of volume on the ledger. In 2024 he attempted 40 field goals, converting 34 of them, including seven from 50-plus yards. That long-range production is the headline: seven makes from beyond 50 in a single season is a meaningful workload at the premium distance tier. His three-year averages settle at 27.3 makes and 32.3 attempts per season, with 25.3 extra points on 26.3 attempts. The consistency of that attempt volume is the core argument for rostering him late in a snake draft.
What the model projects
The projection is 106.9 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Carlson ranks K21 at his position and #240 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -61.9, which places him below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the number to anchor on; the negative draft value reflects where replacement level sits at kicker, not an absence of usable production.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | 3 | 32 | 118.0 |
| 2024 | 34 | 6 | 23 | 139.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | 4 | 21 | 99.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 27.3 | 4.3 | 25.3 | 21.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, as it is for every kicker. The p10 floor is 19.6 points, meaning 10 percent of simulated seasons end at or below that total. The p25 sits at 75.5 points. The median simulated season lands at 119.0 points, above the 106.9 point estimate, and the p75 reaches 135.1. The top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 157.6 points. The distance between the p10 and p90 is 138.0 points, which illustrates how much a kicker's season-to-season outcome can swing. His bye falls in Week 8, a mid-season slot worth noting for roster management.
(bottom 10%)
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our projection
How to draft him
Carlson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, so there is no consensus pick number to reference. In practice, kickers are taken in the final rounds of most snake drafts, and Carlson's K21 position rank and #240 overall rank tell you where the model values him relative to the field. If you are targeting a kicker with a three-year track record of 30-plus attempts in most seasons and demonstrated range beyond 50 yards, Carlson fits that profile. Roster him only after every other positional need is addressed, and keep his Week 8 bye in mind when setting your lineup schedule.
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Questions drafters ask
His three-year averages from 2023 through 2025 are 27.3 makes on 32.3 attempts per season. In 2024 he posted his highest single-season attempt total at 40, converting 34. In 2025 that volume pulled back to 27 attempts and 22 makes.
Over the three seasons covered in FACTS, Carlson made 1 field goal from 50-plus yards in 2023, 7 in 2024, and 5 in 2025, for a total of 13 makes from beyond 50 yards across that span.
The point projection is 106.9 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 119.0 points. The band runs from 19.6 points at the p10 floor to 157.6 points at the p90 ceiling, reflecting the high variance typical of the kicker position.
Carlson's bye is Week 8, a mid-season slot. Plan a streaming or roster option to cover that week.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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