#201 overall · LV · 88.2 projected half-PPR pts · -41.7 Draft Value
Daniel Carlson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Daniel Carlson has been one of the more consistent kickers in the league over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 27.3 field goals made and 25.3 extra points made per season, on 32.3 field goal attempts per year. In 2024 alone he connected on 34 of 40 field goal attempts — a heavy workload that signals a team willing to put him in scoring situations. His 2025 line of 22-of-27 on field goals and 21-of-22 extra points shows continued accuracy even as volume dipped. The floor here is a kicker who has demonstrated he can handle a high-attempt season and convert at a reliable rate.
What the model projects
The projection for Carlson is 88.2 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. His draft value sits at -41.7, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the kicker position. He ranks K19 at his position and #201 overall, landing in Tier 9 on the board.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | — | 32 | 110.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | — | 23 | 125.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | — | 21 | 87.0 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27.3 | 4.3 | 25.3 | 102.9 |
The range of outcomes
Kicker scoring is among the most volatile in fantasy, and Carlson's recent history illustrates that range clearly. His field goal attempts swung from 27 in 2025 to 40 in 2024 — a 13-attempt gap in a single year. Extra points made ranged from 21 in 2025 to 32 in 2023. That kind of season-to-season variance means the gap between a good year and a lean one is wide. A high-volume offensive environment pushes him toward the top of his range; a quieter one compresses it quickly.
How to draft him
Carlson has no market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to register a median pick. In a standard 12-team snake draft, kickers are typically taken in the final rounds, and his #201 overall rank and K19 position rank reflect a projection below replacement level. Draft him only if you have a specific roster construction reason to do so, and only after all higher-priority positions are addressed.
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Questions drafters ask
He averaged 32.3 field goal attempts and 27.3 makes per season from 2023 through 2025. His peak was 40 attempts and 34 makes in 2024; his lightest season was 27 attempts and 22 makes in 2025.
The projection is 88.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -41.7, placing him below replacement level at kicker, ranked K19 at his position and #201 overall.
There is no market ADP available for Carlson — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a median pick number. His rank of #201 overall and K19 reflect a below-replacement projection.
Over the past three seasons he averaged 25.3 extra points made on 26.3 attempts per year. In 2025 he made 21 of 22; in 2023 he was a perfect 32-for-32.