James Conner — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

James Conner's two full seasons in Arizona, 2023 and 2024, were legitimate workhorse campaigns. He carried the ball 208 times for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns in 2023, then followed with 236 attempts, 1,094 rush yards, and nine more touchdowns in 2024 while adding 47 receptions on 55 targets for 414 receiving yards. That receiving volume in 2024 is meaningful: it shows a role that extended well beyond between-the-tackles work. The three-year averages back the picture up, with 158.7 rush attempts, 32.3 targets, and 6.6 combined touchdowns per season across 2023 through 2025. For a drafter willing to take a late-round flier, the 2023 and 2024 track record is the argument.

What the model projects

The projection is 59.6 half-PPR fantasy points. Conner sits at RB56 and #258 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -67.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect the full three-year record, including a 2025 line of 32 rush attempts, 95 rush yards, 8 receptions, and two touchdowns.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 4.6 points, and the 25th percentile reaches only 19.8. The median simulated season is 47.6 points. The upside tail is real: the 75th percentile is 88.9 points and the 90th percentile reaches 129.6. That spread from 4.6 to 129.6 is among the widest variance profiles a drafter will encounter at this position rank. The floor is essentially zero fantasy value; the ceiling, in the best 10 percent of simulated seasons, is a back who contributes meaningfully to a roster. Conner's bye falls in Week 14, which lands during the fantasy playoff window for most leagues.

How to draft him

Conner is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no public consensus pick number to reference. At RB56 and #258 overall in Tier 9, he is a depth option, not a starter. The projection sits below replacement level, so the only rational use case is a late-roster stash where the cost is negligible and the 90th-percentile outcome at 129.6 points provides a reason to hold the spot. Do not reach for him; let the draft come to him.

The projection of 59.6 points and a draft value of -67.5 put him below replacement level at RB in a 12-team half-PPR format, so he is not a player to target with a meaningful pick. His 2025 line was 32 rush attempts, 95 yards, and two touchdowns. The case for rostering him rests entirely on the 90th-percentile outcome of 129.6 points and the near-zero cost of a late pick.

In 2024 Conner saw 55 targets, caught 47 passes, and gained 414 receiving yards. In 2023 he had 33 targets, 27 receptions, and 165 receiving yards. The three-year average is 32.3 targets and 27.3 receptions per season, so there is a documented pass-catching role in his recent history, even if the 2025 sample was only 9 targets and 8 receptions.

The simulated season band runs from 4.6 points at the 10th percentile to 129.6 at the 90th percentile. The median is 47.6 points. The floor is effectively zero fantasy contribution; the ceiling in the top 10 percent of outcomes is a back who can help a roster. That spread reflects significant season-to-season variance.

Conner does not have a market ADP; he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. At RB56 and #258 overall in Tier 9, he belongs at the very end of a draft if he is rostered at all. Do not spend a pick on him before the final rounds.