#290 overall · ARI · 45.8 projected half-PPR pts · -71.1 Draft Value
James Conner — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
James Conner has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons for Arizona, logging 1,040 rush yards and 9 total touchdowns in 2023, then 1,094 rush yards and 9 total touchdowns in 2024. He has also shown consistent receiving work, catching 27 of 33 targets in 2023 and 47 of 55 targets in 2024 for 414 receiving yards. That combination of ground production and pass-game involvement is real. The three-year averages bear it out: 158.7 rush attempts, 743 rush yards, 5.3 rush touchdowns, 27.3 receptions, 205.7 receiving yards, and 1.3 receiving touchdowns per season. For a drafter who wants a veteran RB with a documented role in a specific offense, that track record is the starting point.
What the model projects
The projection for Conner in 2026 is 45.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -71.1, meaning the projection lands 71.1 points below the replacement-level baseline for running backs in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks RB62 at his position and #290 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. Arizona's bye week is Week 14.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 1040 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 165 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 188.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 1094 | 8 | 55 | 47 | 414 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 226.3 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 95 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 158.7 | 743 | 5.3 | 32.3 | 27.3 | 205.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | — | — | 148.1 |
The range of outcomes
The 2025 season produced a sharply reduced stat line: 32 rush attempts, 95 rush yards, 1 rush touchdown, 8 receptions on 9 targets, 38 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown. That is a significant step back from the two prior seasons. The three-year averages — which blend the strong 2023 and 2024 campaigns with 2025 — still reflect a player capable of meaningful volume when healthy and active, but the 2025 numbers introduce real uncertainty about what role, if any, he holds going into 2026. The projection of 45.8 points reflects that uncertainty. A season closer to his 2023–2024 output would look very different from one that resembles 2025.
How to draft him
Conner is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no established draft-slot cost to plan around. At RB62 and #290 overall in Tier 9, he projects below replacement level, and the 2025 stat line adds a layer of risk that the prior two seasons do not erase. If you are targeting him, he is a late-round or undrafted consideration — a depth add rather than a roster cornerstone. His bye in Week 14 is worth noting for playoff-week planning.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 45.8 half-PPR points with a draft value of -71.1, placing him RB62 and #290 overall in Tier 9 — below replacement level. The 2025 season showed just 32 rush attempts, 95 rush yards, and 8 receptions. That context makes him a depth or speculative add, not a player to build around.
In 2024 he caught 47 of 55 targets for 414 yards and 1 receiving touchdown. In 2023 it was 27 catches on 33 targets for 165 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. The three-year average is 27.3 receptions on 32.3 targets for 205.7 receiving yards per season. The 2025 season dropped to 8 receptions on 9 targets for 38 yards.
Conner does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. There is no defined pick cost to plan around.
Arizona's bye is Week 14, which falls during the fantasy playoff window for most leagues. That is worth factoring into any late-season roster planning.