#152 overall · BUF · 86.5 projected half-PPR pts · -25.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 112.0
Dalton Kincaid — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kincaid's three-year résumé with Buffalo shows a tight end who has held a consistent role in the offense. In 2023 he hauled in 73 receptions on 91 targets for 673 yards and 2 touchdowns. The target volume dipped in 2024 (75 targets, 44 receptions, 448 yards, 2 TDs) and again in 2025 by raw target count (49), but 2025 produced a career-high 5 receiving touchdowns on 39 catches for 571 yards — the best scoring output of his career. The three-year averages settle at 71.7 targets, 52 receptions, 564 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns per season. The touchdown spike in 2025 is the most compelling data point: it shows Kincaid can find the end zone at a meaningful rate when opportunities align, and that upside is baked into any conversation about his ceiling.
What the model projects
The projection for Kincaid in 2026 is 86.5 half-PPR fantasy points. Against the replacement-level baseline at tight end, that produces a Draft Value of -25.4, placing him at TE18 and #152 overall. He sits in Tier 9 on the board. The numbers reflect a player whose projected output lands below replacement level at the position — the surplus is negative, meaning the model does not expect him to outproduce what a drafter could reasonably acquire later in the draft at tight end. Buffalo's bye week falls in Week 7.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 73 | 673 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 113.8 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 44 | 448 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 78.8 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 39 | 571 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 106.6 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 71.7 | 52 | 564 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 100.4 |
The range of outcomes
Kincaid's season-outcome band is wide enough to matter. His history shows genuine variance: target share has fluctuated from 49 to 91 in a single season, and touchdown totals have ranged from 2 to 5. A floor season looks like 2024 — modest target volume, low catch rate, minimal scoring. A ceiling season looks like 2025 — efficient yardage and a touchdown rate that punches above the target count. The three-year average of 3 touchdowns per season sits between those poles. Drafters should expect that variance to persist; the outcome in any given year depends heavily on where the touchdowns land.
How to draft him
Market ADP for Kincaid sits at pick 112.0 — that is round 10, pick 4 in a 12-team draft, drawn from two platforms. Our rank is #152 overall, and his position rank is TE18. The ADP is based on two sources, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a settled consensus. If you want Kincaid, the market is currently pricing him in the tenth round. Given his Tier 9 standing and negative Draft Value, he is best approached as a late-round flier rather than a foundational piece of a tight end strategy — a drafter who already has a higher-ranked option at the position can afford to let him go.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 39 passes on 49 targets for 571 yards and a career-high 5 receiving touchdowns in 2025.
The projection is 86.5 half-PPR fantasy points, which produces a Draft Value of -25.4 — below replacement level at tight end.
He is TE18 and #152 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His Draft Value is negative, meaning he projects below the replacement-level baseline at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Market ADP has him going at pick 112 — round 10, pick 4 in a 12-team draft — though that figure is sourced from only two platforms, so treat it as a rough guide.