Dalton Kincaid — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Kincaid's 2025 season showed a version of him that can matter in fantasy: five receiving touchdowns on just 49 targets. That touchdown rate is the most compelling number in his recent history. His 2023 debut remains his volume ceiling, with 91 targets, 73 receptions, and 673 receiving yards. The three-year averages tell a more measured story, 71.7 targets, 52 receptions, 564 yards, and 3 touchdowns per season, but even that baseline keeps him relevant in a Buffalo offense that has consistently found ways to use its tight end. If the target share from 2023 returns alongside the red-zone efficiency from 2025, the upside is real.

What the model projects

The projection is 90.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Kincaid at TE17 and #152 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -30.3, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate reflects a player whose role has fluctuated across three seasons, and the projection lands closer to his 2024 output than his 2023 breakout.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Kincaid finishes at 38.0 points, a near-irrelevant season. The median simulated outcome is 98.7 points, modestly above the 90.3 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 121.5 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 150.1, a genuinely useful tight end season. That spread from 38.0 to 150.1 reflects how much variance lives in his target share and touchdown rate from year to year. His 2025 line, 39 receptions on 49 targets with five scores, and his 2023 line, 73 receptions on 91 targets with two scores, represent two very different versions of the same player. Which one shows up drives almost everything.

How to draft him

Market ADP has Kincaid going at pick 122.0, which works out to round 11, pick 2 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him. His bye is Week 7, worth noting for roster management in the early weeks. With a negative draft value and a TE17 rank, he profiles as a late-round depth option or a handcuff for managers who want a second tight end. The wide outcome band means the upside is there in the back half of drafts, but the floor is low enough that he should not be a primary tight end target.

It has declined sharply. He saw 91 targets in 2023, 75 in 2024, and just 49 in 2025. The three-year average is 71.7 targets per season, but the trend line is moving in the wrong direction.

He scored five receiving touchdowns on 49 targets in 2025, a high rate relative to his prior seasons (two touchdowns on 91 targets in 2023, two on 75 in 2024). The three-year average is 3 touchdowns per season. Whether the 2025 rate holds or regresses toward that average is a central question for his 2026 outlook.

Kincaid is TE17 and #152 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -30.3. That negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format, so he is not a player to build around at the position.

Market ADP puts him at pick 122.0, round 11, pick 2 in a 12-team draft. That is a late-round commitment, consistent with his Tier 9 standing and below-replacement projection.