Jacksonville Jaguars — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The 2025 season showed a Jacksonville defense capable of generating real turnover volume. The unit posted 22 interceptions, 11 forced fumbles, 9 fumble recoveries, 4 defensive touchdowns, and a safety — a takeaway profile that ranked among the more productive in recent franchise history. Points allowed dropped to 336 on the season, the lowest of the three-year window in FACTS, and the game-by-game breakdown reflects genuine competitiveness: 5 games allowing 14–20 points, 3 games allowing 7–13, and 2 games holding opponents to 1–6. That 2025 rebound from a difficult 2024 — when interceptions fell to 6 and points allowed climbed to 435 — is the core of any argument for rostering this unit.

What the model projects

The projection is 116.3 half-PPR fantasy points. The draft value is -29.5, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the DST position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Jacksonville comes in at DST16 and #150 overall, placed in Tier 9. The three-year averages that feed into this context: 35.3 sacks, 14.7 interceptions, 9.3 forced fumbles, 7.7 fumble recoveries, and 2.3 defensive touchdowns per season. The 2025 interception and touchdown numbers were well above those averages; the projection does not simply extrapolate the best single season.

The range of outcomes

The three-season record illustrates how wide DST variance can run. Interceptions ranged from 6 (2024) to 22 (2025). Points allowed ranged from 336 (2025) to 435 (2024). Sacks held in a tighter band — 32 to 40 — but the turnover and scoring-play lines swung sharply. A Jacksonville defense that repeats anything close to its 2025 takeaway output would outperform the 116.3-point projection meaningfully. A regression toward the 2024 profile — 6 interceptions, 5 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries — would land well short of it. The bye falls in Week 7, which is a mid-season roster management consideration regardless of which outcome materializes.

How to draft him

Jacksonville carries no market ADP in FACTS — the unit is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. At DST16 and #150 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -29.5, this is a below-replacement projection by the model's accounting. The practical approach is to treat Jacksonville as a late-round or streaming option rather than a target you need to plan around. If the 2025 turnover numbers represent a genuine step forward, the upside is real — but the projection and rank reflect that the model is not yet pricing that in as a baseline. Roster a higher-ranked DST first; Jacksonville is a speculative add if that unit is unavailable or on bye.

The three-year average is 14.7 interceptions per season, with a low of 6 in 2024 and a high of 22 in 2025. The projection of 116.3 points and a draft value of -29.5 reflect that the model does not treat 22 interceptions as the new baseline. Drafters who believe the 2025 output is sustainable will find more upside than the projection implies; those who weight the 2024 collapse will find the ranking at DST16 and #150 overall appropriate.

There is no market ADP available for Jacksonville in FACTS — the unit is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. There is no pick deadline to plan around.

Points allowed were 371 in 2023, rose to 435 in 2024, then fell to 336 in 2025 — the lowest of the three-year window. The three-year average is 380.7 points allowed per season.

Jacksonville's bye is Week 7. If you roster them as your primary DST, you will need a streaming option for that week. Given the DST16 ranking and below-replacement projection, most drafters will already be treating this unit as a secondary or streaming option, which makes the Week 7 gap easier to manage.