#194 overall · CHI · 73.2 projected half-PPR pts · -38.8 Draft Value
Cole Kmet — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Cole Kmet's best season on record is 2023: 90 targets, 73 receptions, 719 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns for Chicago. That is a legitimate TE1 workload, and it happened. The three-year averages back up the volume story — 64.3 targets and 50 receptions per season across 2023–2025 — confirming he has been a consistent target in this offense when things are clicking. The touchdowns are real, too: 4 receiving scores per season on average over that same window. For a drafter hunting late-round depth at tight end, Kmet's ceiling is documented.
What the model projects
The projection for Kmet in 2026 is 73.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -38.8, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position. He ranks TE26 and #194 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. Chicago's bye week is Week 10.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 73 | 719 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 144.6 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 47 | 474 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 94.9 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 30 | 347 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 61.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0.7 | — | 64.3 | 50 | 513.3 | 4 | 0.3 | — | — | 100.4 |
The range of outcomes
The three most recent seasons tell a story of declining volume: targets fell from 90 in 2023 to 55 in 2024 to 48 in 2025, and receiving yards dropped from 719 to 474 to 347 over the same stretch. Touchdowns followed — 6, then 4, then 2. The three-year averages (64.3 targets, 513.3 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns) are pulled upward by that strong 2023 season, which means the recent trend is softer than the averages suggest. The upside case is a return toward 2023 usage; the downside case is that 2025's 48-target, 347-yard, 2-touchdown line is the new baseline.
How to draft him
Kmet is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. He is a #194 overall, TE26 in Tier 9 — a below-replacement-level projection at the position. In a 12-team snake draft, he is a late-round or undrafted option, useful as a streaming candidate or emergency depth rather than a planned starter. If you are targeting him, the 2023 ceiling is the argument; the 2024–2025 trend is the risk you are accepting.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 73.2 half-PPR points and a draft value of -38.8 place him below replacement level at the position — TE26 and #194 overall in Tier 9. He is better framed as a streaming option or depth piece than a planned TE1.
Targets have declined each of the last three seasons: 90 in 2023, 55 in 2024, and 48 in 2025. The three-year average is 64.3, but that figure is pulled up by the 2023 outlier.
He scored 6 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 4 in 2024, and 2 in 2025. The three-year average is 4 per season, but the trend has been downward.
Kmet does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is available as a late-round or undrafted add in most 12-team formats.