#246 overall · CHI · 57.6 projected half-PPR pts · -62.9 Draft Value
Cole Kmet — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Cole Kmet's 2023 season is the anchor for any optimistic read: 90 targets, 73 receptions, 719 receiving yards, and 6 touchdown catches. That is a legitimate TE1 workload, and it happened. The three-year averages tell a more complicated story, with targets settling at 64.3 and receiving yards at 513.3 per season, but the ceiling is documented. If the Chicago offense funnels volume back toward Kmet at anything close to that 2023 rate, the production is there to be had. For a drafter willing to wait at the position, that prior peak is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 57.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That lands Kmet at TE32 and #246 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -62.9, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 58.1 points, tracks closely with the point estimate, so the projection and the typical simulated outcome are aligned.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 90 | 73 | 719 | 6 | 1 | 144.6 |
| 2024 | 55 | 47 | 474 | 4 | — | 94.9 |
| 2025 | 48 | 30 | 347 | 2 | — | 61.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 64.3 | 50 | 513.3 | 4 | 0.3 | 100.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 16.1 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile sits at 33.1 points, still a thin return. The median is 58.1 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 82.3 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons land at or above 115.0 points. That 115.0-point ceiling reflects the kind of season Kmet has shown he can produce. The floor, however, is genuinely low, and the gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is nearly 99 points. This is a high-variance profile.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Kmet is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick cost to plan around. At TE32 and #246 overall in Tier 9, with a negative draft value, he projects as a below-replacement option at the position. He is a late-round or waiver-wire consideration for a drafter who wants to carry a high-upside dart throw at tight end, with the 2023 stat line as the reason to believe the ceiling is real. Roster him only if you are comfortable with the very real possibility of the floor.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
In 2023, Kmet saw 90 targets, caught 73 of them for 719 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. That is the high-water mark across his three tracked seasons.
It has declined each year. Targets dropped to 55 in 2024 and 48 in 2025. Receptions fell from 73 to 47 to 30, and receiving yards went from 719 to 474 to 347. Touchdowns also fell, from 6 in 2023 to 4 in 2024 to 2 in 2025.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 115.0 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 82.3 points. Those outcomes require a significant uptick from recent production, but the 2023 season shows the workload that would make them possible.
It is substantial. Ten percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 16.1 points, and the 25th percentile is only 33.1 points. The projection of 57.6 points sits below replacement level, giving Kmet a draft value of -62.9 in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →