#5 overall · IND · 253.1 projected half-PPR pts · +124.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 6.1
Jonathan Taylor — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jonathan Taylor's 2025 season was the clearest statement of his ceiling: 323 rush attempts, 1,585 rushing yards, 18 rushing touchdowns, 46 receptions for 378 yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns. That is a complete back operating at full volume. The three-year averages back the case just as firmly: 265 rush attempts, 1,252.3 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, and 27.7 receptions per season. The receiving work has grown each year, from 19 receptions on 23 targets in 2023 to 46 receptions on 55 targets in 2025, adding a dimension that matters in half-PPR formats. His draft value sits at +124.6, meaning the projection puts him well above replacement level at the running back position. He ranks RB3 at #5 overall and lands in Tier 2 of the rankings. The production history and the ranking are pointing in the same direction.
What the model projects
The projection is 253.1 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. His bye week is Week 13. The three-year trend in workload, 169 rush attempts in 2023, 303 in 2024, and 323 in 2025, frames the context for that number. The receiving role has expanded alongside the rushing volume, with targets climbing from 23 to 31 to 55 across those same three seasons. The projection at 253.1 points reflects a player whose role has grown steadily and whose most recent season was his most productive across every major counting category.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 169 | 741 | 7 | 23 | 19 | 153 | 1 | 1 | 146.9 |
| 2024 | 303 | 1431 | 11 | 31 | 18 | 136 | 1 | 3 | 235.7 |
| 2025 | 323 | 1585 | 18 | 55 | 46 | 378 | 2 | 2 | 337.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 265 | 1252.3 | 12 | 36.3 | 27.7 | 222.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 241.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band runs from 156.4 points at the 10th percentile to 346.1 at the 90th. The median simulated season lands at 264.6 points, slightly above the 253.1 point estimate. The 25th percentile is 207.9 and the 75th is 312.9, so the middle half of outcomes spans roughly 105 points. The downside is real: a 10th-percentile season at 156.4 points would represent a significant step back from recent production. The upside at 346.1 points reflects a season in the range of his 2025 output with elevated efficiency. Fumbles are worth watching in the context of that downside: Taylor has fumbled twice per season on average over the past three years, losing one in each of 2024 and 2025. That is a manageable rate at his volume, but it is a factor in the lower end of the band.
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our projection
How to draft him
Taylor is ranked #5 overall and RB3 in a 12-team half-PPR format. The market is drafting him at pick 6.1, which translates to the 1.06 slot in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means in a standard 12-team draft, you are spending your first-round pick, sixth off the board, to land him. Plan accordingly: if you want Taylor, the first round is where the decision gets made.
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Questions drafters ask
It has grown each year. He caught 19 of 23 targets in 2023, 18 of 31 in 2024, and 46 of 55 in 2025, with receiving yards climbing from 153 to 136 to 378 across those seasons. The three-year average is 27.7 receptions on 36.3 targets per season.
The projection is 253.1 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 264.6 points, and the band runs from 156.4 at the 10th percentile to 346.1 at the 90th.
The market is taking him at pick 6.1 on average, which is the 1.06 slot in a 12-team snake draft. That is a first-round commitment, sixth pick of the draft.
He has averaged 2 fumbles per season over the past three years, losing one fumble in each of 2024 and 2025. At his volume, 265 rush attempts per season on average, it is a manageable rate, but it is one of the factors that shapes the lower end of his outcome band, where the 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 156.4 points.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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