Bryce Young — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Bryce Young's 2025 season was his most productive on record. He threw for 3,011 yards and 23 touchdowns, added 216 rushing yards and 2 more scores on the ground, and cut his fumbles lost to 4 after losing 6 in 2023. The three-year averages tell a story of incremental growth: 2,763.7 passing yards, 16.3 passing touchdowns, and 239.3 rushing yards per season. The rushing dimension is real and consistent, with 39, 43, and 54 carry seasons across 2023 through 2025. For a drafter willing to wait deep into a draft and carry a QB2 or streaming option, the 2025 trajectory at least gives a factual foundation to build a case on.

What the model projects

The projection is 172.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below his 2025 actual output, and his draft value of -87.2 reflects a position below replacement level at QB in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks QB29 and #331 overall, placing him in Tier 9. The numbers are what they are: this is a projection for a quarterback the model does not expect to return starting-caliber fantasy value at the position level.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. The p10 outcome is 45.0 points, a near-total-loss season. The p25 sits at 95.2, still well below useful fantasy production. The median simulated season lands at 142.3 points. The upside tail is more interesting: the p75 is 220.2 and the p90 reaches 287.4. That p90 number is consistent with a functional QB1 week-to-week, but only 10 percent of simulated seasons get there. The distance between the p10 and p90 is 242.4 points, which is an unusually wide spread and signals that the outcome here is genuinely binary rather than tightly bounded.

How to draft him

Young does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. In practice, he is a late-round or undrafted option in most leagues. His bye is Week 5, worth noting if you are stacking or streaming at the position. At QB29 and #331 overall, he belongs at the back of any draft queue, taken only after your roster is otherwise set. The wide outcome band means the upside is real enough to justify a final-round flier in deeper formats, but the floor is low enough that he should never be a primary QB target.

The projection of 172.2 points and a draft value of -87.2 put him at QB29 and #331 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers place him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format, so he is not a reliable starting option by the model's output.

Over three seasons he has averaged 2,763.7 passing yards, 16.3 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 239.3 rushing yards per year. His best season was 2025: 3,011 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and 216 rushing yards with 2 rushing touchdowns.

The simulated season band runs from 45.0 points at the p10 to 287.4 at the p90. The median is 142.3. The p90 represents a genuinely useful fantasy season, but only 10 percent of simulated outcomes reach it. The spread of 242.4 points between the floor and ceiling is very wide, making this a high-variance pick.

Young has no consistent market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, meaning he is not being regularly drafted. He is a late-round or undrafted option. His Week 5 bye is worth tracking if you roster him as a streamer.