#412 overall · CAR · 172.2 projected half-PPR pts · -95.2 Draft Value
Bryce Young — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Bryce Young has posted three consecutive seasons as Carolina's starter, and the trajectory of his stat line is real. In 2023 he threw for 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on 527 attempts. In 2025 he threw for 3,011 yards and 23 touchdowns — more than double his 2023 touchdown output — while cutting his fumbles from 11 down to 6. His three-year averages settle at 2,763.7 passing yards, 16.3 passing touchdowns, and 2.7 rushing touchdowns per season. He also adds a consistent ground dimension: rush attempts have ranged from 39 to 54 per season, producing a three-year average of 239.3 rush yards and 45.3 attempts annually. The 2025 season — 23 passing touchdowns, 2 rushing touchdowns, 304 completions on 478 attempts — is the clearest evidence yet that the ceiling is rising.
What the model projects
The projection for Young is 172.2 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. His draft value sits at -95.2, placing him QB25 and #412 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect where he stands relative to replacement level at the quarterback position on a 12-team half-PPR board. His bye week is Week 5.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 527 | 315 | 2877 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 253 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 162.4 |
| 2024 | 384 | 234 | 2403 | 15 | 9 | 43 | 249 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 204.0 |
| 2025 | 478 | 304 | 3011 | 23 | 11 | 54 | 216 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 227.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 463 | 284.3 | 2763.7 | 16.3 | 10 | 45.3 | 239.3 | 2.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 | — | — | 205.9 |
The range of outcomes
Young's three-year history illustrates genuine season-to-season variance. Passing touchdowns have swung from 11 to 23; fumbles lost have ranged from 2 to 6, averaging 4 per season; interceptions have held in a band of 9 to 11. Pass attempts have moved from 384 to 527 in a single season. That volatility is baked into the outcome band. A floor season looks a lot like 2023 — modest yardage, limited touchdowns, elevated turnover risk. A ceiling season looks like 2025 — 3,000-plus yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and a meaningful rushing contribution. The distance between those two outcomes is wide, and drafters should price that range honestly.
How to draft him
Young is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no public draft-slot data to reference. At QB25 and #412 overall in Tier 9, he projects below replacement level at the position. He is a late-round or waiver-wire consideration in standard 12-team formats — a speculative add for managers who want a dart throw on the 2025 trajectory continuing, with full awareness that the projection and the draft value reflect where he stands today.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 172.2 points and a draft value of -95.2 put him at QB25 and #412 overall in Tier 9 — below replacement level at the position. He is a speculative late-round or waiver-wire option, not a reliable starter.
He threw 11 touchdowns in 2023, 15 in 2024, and 23 in 2025 — a clear upward progression. His three-year average is 16.3 passing touchdowns per season.
Over the last three seasons his rush attempts have ranged from 39 to 54, averaging 45.3 per year. He has averaged 239.3 rush yards per season, with rushing touchdowns of 0, 6, and 2 in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively — a three-year average of 2.7 per season.
Over three seasons he has averaged 10 interceptions and 4 fumbles lost per year. His interception totals have been consistent (10, 9, 11), while fumbles lost have ranged from 2 to 6, averaging exactly 4 per season.