Antonio Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Antonio Williams is a wide receiver on Washington's roster, and at this stage of a draft the conversation is almost entirely about upside. The projection is modest, but the band tells a different story at its upper end: 10% of simulated seasons land at or above 107.9 half-PPR points. That ceiling exists, and in the late rounds of a snake draft, ceiling is often the only thing worth paying for. Williams carries a bye in Week 7, which is a manageable scheduling note. The case here is thin by design — this is a depth pick, and the drafter who takes him knows exactly what that means.

What the model projects

The projection is 51.6 half-PPR fantasy points. Williams ranks #291 overall and WR100, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -76.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 33.5 points, which is notably below the 51.6 point estimate — the two numbers are different by design, and both are worth noting. The point estimate is the headline projection; the median simulated season reflects how outcomes are distributed across the full range of possibilities.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide and skewed. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 0.9 points — essentially a non-factor. The 25th percentile sits at 13.6 points, and the median lands at 33.5. From there the band opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 66.3 points, and the 90th percentile climbs to 107.9. The distance between the p10 and p90 is over 107 points, which reflects a high-variance profile. A drafter taking Williams is accepting a wide range of results, from near-zero contribution to a season that clears 100 points.

How to draft him

Williams does not have a consistent market ADP across platforms, so there is no reliable signal for when other drafters are taking him. In practice, that means he is likely available very late or undrafted in most leagues. At WR100 and #291 overall with a negative draft value, he belongs at the back end of a roster as a speculative add. Draft him only after your starting lineup and primary depth are secured. The upside at p90 gives him a reason to exist on a roster; the p10 and p50 are reminders to keep expectations grounded.

The projection is 51.6 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season (p50) is 33.5 points, which is lower than the point estimate — both numbers are part of the full picture.

The 90th-percentile outcome is 107.9 half-PPR points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above that total. That is the realistic upper bound of his range.

Negative. His draft value is -76.9, placing him below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks WR100 and #291 overall in Tier 9.

Williams has no consistent market ADP, so there is no reliable signal for when he is being taken. Given his rank and negative draft value, he is a late-roster speculative pick, taken only after your starters and primary depth are in place.