Alvin Kamara — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Alvin Kamara's 2024 season is the argument. He carried the ball 228 times for 950 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, caught 68 passes on 89 targets for 543 receiving yards and 2 more scores. That is a full three-down workload, and the receiving volume in particular — 89 targets — reflects a role that generates fantasy points even in weeks when the run game stalls. His three-year averages back that up: 179.7 rush attempts, 71.3 targets, 58.7 receptions, and 398.3 receiving yards per season. The floor in a good year is a high-volume back with a consistent pass-catching role, and that combination has produced real fantasy production as recently as last season.

What the model projects

The projection is 77.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at RB46 and #207 overall, placing Kamara in Tier 9. His draft value is -50.1, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 73.1 points, close to the point estimate. These numbers reflect where the model lands given the full picture of his recent stat lines, including a 2025 season in which he totaled 471 rushing yards, 186 receiving yards, 1 rushing touchdown, and 2 fumbles lost on 131 rush attempts and 39 targets.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 11.5 points — essentially a non-factor campaign. The 25th percentile lands at 34.2 points, still a deeply disappointing result for a drafted player. The median is 73.1 points. Move to the optimistic side and the 75th percentile reaches 115.6 points, with the top 10% of simulated seasons finishing at or above 162.7 points. That upper tail is meaningful: a season resembling his 2024 output would land somewhere in that range. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes — 11.5 to 162.7 — is among the widest variance profiles a drafter will encounter at the position, which means the result depends heavily on which version of Kamara shows up.

How to draft him

Market ADP sits at 148.9, which works out to pick 13.05 in a 12-team draft — a 13th-round selection based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you would spend to secure him. At RB46 and #207 overall in Tier 9, with a negative draft value, Kamara projects as a depth add rather than a contributor to a winning roster construction. His bye falls in Week 8. If you are building late-round depth and want exposure to the upside in that p75-to-p90 band, the 13th round is when the market says you need to act. Understand going in that the projection and the replacement-level math both point to a player who is more likely to disappoint than to replicate his best recent work.

Market ADP places him at pick 13.05 in a 12-team draft. The model projects 77.7 half-PPR points, a draft value of -50.1, and a position rank of RB46 — all below replacement level. The facts do not support labeling him a bargain or a reach on that gap alone, but the projection and the replacement-level math are both negative, so drafters should enter with clear eyes about the baseline expectation.

In 2024 he posted 228 rush attempts, 950 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns, 89 targets, 68 receptions, and 543 receiving yards. In 2025 those numbers dropped to 131 rush attempts, 471 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 39 targets, 33 receptions, 186 receiving yards, and 2 fumbles lost. His three-year averages across 2023-2025 are 179.7 rush attempts, 705 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 71.3 targets, 58.7 receptions, and 398.3 receiving yards per season.

The simulated season band runs from 11.5 points at the 10th percentile to 162.7 points at the 90th percentile, with a median of 73.1 points. The 75th percentile is 115.6 points. The upside is real but requires a best-case outcome; the downside includes a near-zero fantasy season in 10% of simulations.

His bye is Week 8. He is in Tier 9, ranked RB46 and #207 overall.