#221 overall · NO · 66.8 projected half-PPR pts · -50.1 Draft Value
Alvin Kamara — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Alvin Kamara has been one of the more durable pass-catching backs in the league over the past three seasons. In 2024 he posted 950 rush yards on 228 attempts, 543 receiving yards on 68 receptions from 89 targets, and scored 8 total touchdowns. In 2023 he added 694 rush yards, 466 receiving yards, 75 receptions from 86 targets, and 6 touchdowns. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 179.7 rush attempts, 705 rush yards, 58.7 receptions, 398.3 receiving yards, 4 rush touchdowns, and 1 receiving touchdown per season. For a drafter willing to look past the 2025 line, those 2023 and 2024 seasons show a back who can contribute in both the run and pass game.
What the model projects
The projection is 66.8 half-PPR fantasy points. Against a 12-team half-PPR replacement baseline, that produces a Draft Value of -50.1 — below replacement level at the running back position. He ranks RB47 at the position and #221 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 694 | 5 | 86 | 75 | 466 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 189.5 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 950 | 6 | 89 | 68 | 543 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231.3 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 471 | 1 | 39 | 33 | 186 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 84.2 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 179.7 | 705 | 4 | 71.3 | 58.7 | 398.3 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 169.7 |
The range of outcomes
The 2025 season produced 131 rush attempts for 471 yards, 33 receptions for 186 receiving yards, 1 rush touchdown, 0 receiving touchdowns, and 2 fumbles lost. That is a materially thinner line than 2023 or 2024. The three-year aggregate sits at 179.7 rush attempts and 705 rush yards per season, but the most recent campaign sits well below those averages. The variance in his recent history is real: a season closer to his 2024 output would look very different from a repeat of 2025. Both are within the range of what his recent record shows.
How to draft him
Kamara is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. He is RB47 and #221 overall in Tier 9. At that rank, he is a late-round or undrafted consideration in most 12-team formats. His Draft Value of -50.1 signals a below-replacement projection, so any roster spot allocated to him is a speculative one. His bye is Week 8.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he carried 228 times for 950 rush yards and 6 rush touchdowns, caught 68 of 89 targets for 543 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns, and fumbled once.
The projection is 66.8 half-PPR fantasy points, which produces a Draft Value of -50.1 against a 12-team replacement baseline — below replacement level at running back.
He ranks RB47 at the position and #221 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board.
He does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. His rank of #221 overall puts him in late-round or undrafted territory in most 12-team snake drafts.