#122 overall · CHI · 128.1 projected half-PPR pts · -17.7 Draft Value
Chicago Bears — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Bears have posted a three-year average of 35 sacks and 18.7 interceptions per season, and 2025 was their best interception year of the stretch at 23. Fumble recovery has been consistent as well, averaging 9.7 per year across 2023-2025. The turnover production is real and repeatable on paper. In 2024 the unit forced 17 fumbles and recovered 13 of them, the strongest single-season showing in that category over the three-year window. If you are building a late-round DST roster spot around a unit with a demonstrated track record of generating turnovers, the Bears have the numbers to support that conversation.
What the model projects
The projection is 128.1 half-PPR fantasy points. The draft value is -17.7, meaning the Bears project below replacement level at the DST position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That places them at DST9 and #122 overall, sitting in Tier 9 of the rankings.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 379 | — | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 124.0 |
| 2024 | 40 | 11 | 17 | 13 | 3 | — | 370 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 133.0 |
| 2025 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 10 | 2 | — | 415 | 1 | — | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 124.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 35 | 18.7 | 14 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 388 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 120.2 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year history shows meaningful variance in the categories that drive DST scoring. Points allowed swung from 370 in 2024 to 415 in 2025, a 45-point difference that directly affects fantasy scoring. The distribution of points-allowed games tells the story: in 2025 the Bears had three games surrendering 35 or more points and only one game in the 1-6 range, compared to 2024 when they had one blowout game and one shutout-range performance. Sacks have ranged from 30 to 40 over the three seasons. Interceptions spiked to 23 in 2025 after dropping to 11 in 2024. The unit can produce a strong fantasy week, but the floor is soft given the points-allowed trends.
How to draft him
The Bears are not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. At DST9 and #122 overall with a negative draft value, this is a unit best treated as a late-round flier or a streaming option rather than a committed roster investment. Their bye falls in Week 10, so plan accordingly if you do roster them. The projection and rank suggest replacement-level or below production, which means the upside case rests almost entirely on the turnover variance the history shows is possible.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects 128.1 points and a draft value of -17.7, placing them at DST9 and #122 overall in Tier 9. That is below replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format, which makes them a streaming candidate rather than a locked-in starter.
They averaged 35 sacks per season from 2023 to 2025, with a peak of 40 in 2024 and a low of 30 in 2023. The 2025 total of 35 matched the three-year average exactly.
The Bears allowed 379 points in 2023, 370 in 2024, and 415 in 2025, for a three-year average of 388. In 2025 they had three games surrendering 35 or more points, which are the worst-scoring outcomes for a fantasy DST. That trend is a meaningful downside risk.
Their bye is Week 10. If you roster them, you will need a streaming replacement for that week.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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