#224 overall · NYJ · 116.3 projected half-PPR pts · -53.4 Draft Value
Jason Sanders — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jason Sanders has shown genuine range as a kicker. In 2024 he connected on 12 field goals from 50-plus yards on 41 attempts, finishing 37-for-41 overall. That long-distance volume is real production, not noise. His 2023 line was steadier in a different way: 24-for-28 with only 2 misses and 58 extra points on 59 attempts, a near-perfect PAT season. Averaged across the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he has posted 30.5 made field goals and 42 extra points per season on 34.5 attempts, with just 3 misses per year. That is a consistent floor of activity, and activity is what kicker scoring runs on.
What the model projects
The projection is 116.3 half-PPR fantasy points. Sanders ranks K15 at the position and #224 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -53.4, which places him below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline number; the band tells a different story about variance, which is addressed in the next section. His bye week is 13.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | 2 | 58 | 144.0 |
| 2024 | 37 | 4 | 26 | 162.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 30.5 | 3 | 42 | 39.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band here is wide, and that is the defining fact about Sanders as a fantasy asset. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces nothing. The p25 sits at just 8.8 points. The median simulated season lands at 67.1 points, well below the 116.3 projection, which signals that the distribution is heavily right-skewed. The upside is real: the p75 is 148.5 and the p90 reaches 211.3. In short, most simulated seasons cluster low, but the high-end outcomes pull the projection up significantly. A drafter taking Sanders is accepting a wide range, with the median outcome falling short of the point estimate by a substantial margin.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Sanders is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick cost to plan around and no round to target. In practice, he is a late-flier or a waiver-wire name depending on how your draft unfolds. His Tier 9 placement and K15 position rank reflect a below-replacement projection in this format. Draft him only if you need a kicker to close out your roster and he is still available, keeping the wide outcome band in mind: the median simulated season is 67.1 points, but the p90 ceiling is 211.3.
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Questions drafters ask
His projection is 116.3 points, but the median simulated season is 67.1, and the p25 is just 8.8. He ranks K15 and #224 overall with a draft value of -53.4, placing him below replacement level. He has no market ADP, so there is no pick cost attached to him right now.
Over the 2023-2025 three-year window he averaged 30.5 made field goals and 3 misses per season on 34.5 attempts. In 2023 he missed just 2 of 28 attempts and converted 58 of 59 extra points. In 2024 he went 37-for-41 with 12 makes from 50-plus yards.
The p90 outcome across simulated seasons is 211.3 half-PPR points. The p75 is 148.5. Those are the top-end scenarios the band captures, though the median simulated season is only 67.1 points.
Week 13.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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