#149 overall · DAL · 116.5 projected half-PPR pts · -29.3 Draft Value
Dallas Cowboys — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Cowboys have posted 45, 51, and 34 sacks over the past three seasons, with a three-year average of 43.3. That pass-rush volume is real, and it has produced a steady stream of turnovers: 17 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries in 2023, 13 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries in 2024. The 2023 unit also forced 14 fumbles, recorded 2 safeties, and returned 6 touchdowns, delivering the kind of multi-category production that DST streamers dream about. If you need a late-round DST with a proven ceiling, the 2023 tape is the reference point.
What the model projects
The projection is 116.5 half-PPR fantasy points. The draft value is -29.3, placing the Cowboys at DST15 and #149 overall in Tier 9. That is a below-replacement-level projection at the position, and the rank reflects it plainly.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 0 | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 45 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 315 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 181.0 |
| 2024 | 51 | 13 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 468 | — | — | — | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 128.0 |
| 2025 | 34 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 511 | — | — | — | 1 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 62.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 43.3 | 12 | 14.3 | 8 | 4 | 1.3 | 431.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 124.2 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year trend tells a clear story. Points allowed climbed from 315 in 2023 to 468 in 2024 to 511 in 2025. Interceptions fell from 17 to 13 to 6. Touchdowns dropped from 6 to 4 to 2. Fumbles forced went from 14 to 18 to 11, and fumbles recovered held at 9 before falling to 6. The 2025 season produced six games allowing 28-34 points and four games allowing 35 or more, compared to just two such games in 2023. The three-year averages, 43.3 sacks, 12 interceptions, 14.3 fumbles forced, 8 fumbles recovered, and 4 touchdowns, sit well below the 2023 peak. The upside is documented; the recent direction is not favorable.
How to draft him
The Cowboys carry no market ADP across tracked platforms, meaning they are not being drafted consistently enough to register a median pick. In practice, that makes them a waiver-wire candidate rather than a draft-day target. At DST15 and #149 overall, the projection does not support spending a pick here when the position can be addressed off the wire. If you do roster them, note the Week 14 bye and plan your streaming schedule accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects 116.5 points and a draft value of -29.3, ranking them DST15 and #149 overall in Tier 9. That is a below-replacement-level projection. The three-year trend shows points allowed rising from 315 in 2023 to 511 in 2025, interceptions falling from 17 to 6, and touchdowns dropping from 6 to 2. The numbers do not support spending a draft pick on them.
2023 stands out: 45 sacks, 17 interceptions, 14 fumbles forced, 9 fumbles recovered, 6 touchdowns, 2 safeties, and only 315 points allowed. That season included 1 shutout and just 2 games allowing 35 or more points. Each of the two seasons since has been a step back across most categories.
In 2025 they allowed 511 points, had 6 interceptions, 2 touchdowns, 34 sacks, 11 fumbles forced, and 6 fumbles recovered. They allowed 28 or more points in 10 of their games, including 4 games of 35-plus points allowed.
Week 14.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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