#107 overall · DAL · 119.0 projected half-PPR pts · -10.0 Draft Value
Dallas Cowboys — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Cowboys have shown they can generate pressure. Over the past three seasons, Dallas averaged 43.3 sacks per year, including a 51-sack campaign in 2024 and 45 in 2023. Forced fumbles have been a consistent weapon as well, averaging 14.3 per season across that same three-year window, with 18 forced in 2024 alone. For drafters who believe the pass rush can bounce back from a down 2025 — when sacks dipped to 34 and interceptions fell to just 6 — there is a real floor of big-play potential baked into this unit's recent history.
What the model projects
The model projects Dallas DST for 119.0 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. That projection lands them at DST8 and #107 overall, placing them in Tier 9. Their draft value of -10.0 means the projection sits below replacement level at the position — the unit is expected to produce, but not at a level that generates a surplus over what a drafter could reasonably find elsewhere at the position.
| INT | Sacks | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | 45 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 315 | 151.0 |
| 2024 | 13 | 51 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 468 | 139.0 |
| 2025 | 6 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 511 | 83.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 12 | 43.3 | 14.3 | 8 | 4 | 1.3 | 431.3 | 124.2 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year trend tells a story of meaningful variance. Points allowed climbed from 315 in 2023 to 468 in 2024 and 511 in 2025 — a sharp deterioration in defensive resistance. Touchdowns scored by the defense fell from 6 in 2023 to 4 in 2024 to just 2 in 2025, and interceptions dropped from 17 to 13 to 6 over the same span. The upside case rests on a sack unit that has shown it can reach 45–51 sacks in a season and a turnover rate that could normalize upward from 2025's low. The downside case is that 2025 was not an aberration — points allowed continued rising, and the big-play ceiling may be structurally lower than the 2023 peak suggested. Dallas carries a wide range of outcomes, and the direction of the trend is the central risk.
How to draft him
Dallas DST is ranked DST8 and #107 overall. With no consistent market ADP available across platforms, there is no reliable signal on where public drafts are pricing this unit. As a Tier 9 DST with a negative draft value, Dallas is a late-round or streaming-tier option. Their bye falls in Week 14 — a critical fantasy playoff week in most leagues — which is a scheduling consideration worth factoring into any DST roster plan. Draft them only if you are comfortable managing around that bye at a high-stakes point in the season.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects them at 119.0 half-PPR points, ranking them DST8 and #107 overall in Tier 9 with a draft value of -10.0 — below replacement level at the position. They carry real pass-rush history (43.3 sacks per season over three years) but the trend in points allowed and turnovers has moved in the wrong direction.
It was significant across the board: sacks fell from 51 in 2024 to 34 in 2025, interceptions dropped from 13 to 6, defensive touchdowns fell from 4 to 2, and points allowed climbed to 511 — the highest of the three-year window. Whether 2025 represents a floor or a new baseline is the central question for this unit.
Dallas is on bye in Week 14. For most leagues, Week 14 falls during the fantasy playoffs, meaning any drafter who relies on Dallas as their primary DST will need a viable streamer or backup option available at that point in the season.
The historical ceiling is real: 51 sacks and 18 forced fumbles in 2024, and 17 interceptions and 6 defensive touchdowns in 2023. If the pass rush rebounds toward that 45–51 sack range and turnover production normalizes from 2025's low of 6 interceptions, the unit has the personnel history to outperform its DST8 projection.