#112 overall · TEN · 115.1 projected half-PPR pts · -13.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 103.5
Wan'Dale Robinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Wan'Dale Robinson's 2025 season was the clearest statement of his role to date: 140 targets, 92 receptions, 1,014 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns. That target volume matches his 2024 total exactly, and the yardage represents a meaningful step forward from the 699 he posted that year. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 119.3 targets and 81.7 receptions per year, which is a consistent workload for a receiver who has settled into a defined role. The 2025 receiving yard total crossing 1,000 is the kind of production that confirms he is a genuine contributor, not a depth piece.
What the model projects
The projection for Robinson is 115.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -13.8, which places him below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That puts him at WR50 and #112 overall, landing in Tier 9. The projection sits close to his simulated median: the p50 of his outcome band is 109.6 points, just under the point estimate.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 78 | 60 | 525 | 1 | 9 | 87 | 1 | — | 103.2 |
| 2024 | 140 | 93 | 699 | 3 | 3 | 18 | — | — | 136.2 |
| 2025 | 140 | 92 | 1014 | 4 | 3 | 5 | — | 1 | 171.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 119.3 | 81.7 | 746 | 2.7 | 5 | 36.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 137.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the low end, a bottom-10% season lands at 41.5 points (p10), and the 25th percentile comes in at 71.9 points. The median outcome is 109.6 points. From there, a strong season reaches 145.0 points at the 75th percentile, and a top-10% outcome climbs to 188.4 points. That spread from p10 to p90 covers nearly 147 points, which reflects genuine season-to-season variance for a receiver at this tier. The upside case at p90 is a materially different player than the downside case at p10, so the outcome you get matters a great deal.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Robinson's market ADP is 103.5, which works out to pick 9.08 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him. His ranking is #112 overall and WR50. Robinson carries a negative draft value at his position rank, so he is a depth or late-roster consideration rather than a building block. His bye is Week 9, worth noting when constructing a roster around him.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2025 he posted 140 targets, 92 receptions, 1,014 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns, along with 3 rush attempts for 5 yards.
The projection is 115.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His p50 simulated outcome is 109.6 points, close to but slightly below that figure.
His simulated band runs from 41.5 points at the 10th percentile to 188.4 points at the 90th percentile, with a median of 109.6. That is a spread of nearly 147 points between the bad and great scenarios.
His market ADP is 103.5, which translates to pick 9.08 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the average pick being spent on him across two platforms.
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Beyond the numbers
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