#103 overall · SF · 103.2 projected half-PPR pts · -8.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 97.6
George Kittle — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
George Kittle has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons, logging 1,020 yards in 2023 and 1,106 yards in 2024. His three-year average sits at 918 receiving yards, 66.7 receptions, and 7 receiving touchdowns per season. The touchdown production has been consistent — 6 scores in 2023, 8 in 2024, 7 in 2025 — and that floor matters at a position where scoring variance can swing a season. His 2025 yardage dipped to 628 on 57 catches from 69 targets, but the touchdown rate held. Kittle is TE10 with a Tier 9 designation on a board that values positional scarcity, and his track record of volume and end-zone work gives him a credible path back toward his recent peaks.
What the model projects
The projection is 103.2 half-PPR fantasy points, placing Kittle at #103 overall and TE10. His draft value of -8.8 puts him just below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR baseline, meaning the model sees him as a player whose projected output is slightly under what a drafter could expect from a freely available replacement-level tight end. That is the honest read of the number. His Tier 9 placement reflects that positioning on the board.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 65 | 1020 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 170.7 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 78 | 1106 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 197.6 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 69 | 57 | 628 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 133.0 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7 | -0.3 | — | 84.3 | 66.7 | 918 | 7 | — | — | 167.1 |
The range of outcomes
Kittle's recent history frames the outcome range clearly. In 2023 he produced 1,020 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns on 90 targets. In 2024 he stepped up to 1,106 yards and 8 touchdowns on 94 targets — his strongest recent season. In 2025 the target share contracted to 69 and yardage fell to 628, though he still found the end zone 7 times. The upside case leans on a target-volume recovery toward his 2023–2024 levels; the downside case is a repeat of 2025's reduced role. Touchdown production has been the stabilizing force across all three seasons, and that consistency is the most reliable thread in his profile.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Kittle going at pick 97.6 — round 9, pick 2 in a 12-team draft (median across two platforms). That is the pick you will need to spend to secure him. His bye is Week 8, so plan your roster depth accordingly. At TE10 with a negative draft value, he is a late-round option for drafters who want a recognizable name at the position and are comfortable with the projection sitting just below replacement level.
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Questions drafters ask
He projects at 103.2 half-PPR points as TE10, with a draft value of -8.8, meaning the model has him just below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR baseline. His three-year average of 918 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns per season shows a real production floor, but the projection reflects some uncertainty after his 2025 target share dropped to 69.
Market ADP puts him at pick 97.6 — round 9, pick 2 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the going rate in public 2026 drafts.
Very consistent over three seasons: 6 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 8 in 2024, and 7 in 2025, for a three-year average of 7 per season. That end-zone reliability has been the steadiest part of his fantasy profile.
His 2025 season showed a meaningful drop in targets (69) and receiving yards (628) compared to his 2023 (90 targets, 1,020 yards) and 2024 (94 targets, 1,106 yards) campaigns. If that reduced target share persists, the yardage upside is capped even if the touchdowns remain steady.