#112 overall · LAC · 255.7 projected half-PPR pts · -11.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 80.3
Justin Herbert — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Justin Herbert has been one of the more durable, high-volume quarterbacks in the league over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 490.7 pass attempts, 3,577 pass yards, and 23 passing touchdowns per season. His rushing contribution has grown each year — 228 yards on 52 attempts in 2023, 306 on 69 in 2024, and 498 on 83 in 2025 — giving him a three-year average of 344 rush yards and 68 rush attempts per season. That dual-threat floor matters in half-PPR formats. The 2025 season showed his most productive rushing year yet, and his 26 passing touchdowns that year were a three-year high. The volume is real, the usage is consistent, and the rushing upside adds a scoring dimension that pure pocket passers at this tier cannot match.
What the model projects
The projection for Herbert in 2026 is 255.7 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -11.7, placing him #112 overall and QB8 at his position. He is in Tier 9 on the board. The projection reflects a player whose three-year averages — 3,577 pass yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 344 rush yards — form a consistent baseline, with the 2025 rushing spike as the most recent data point feeding into the outlook.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 456 | 297 | 3134 | 20 | 7 | 52 | 228 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 238.7 |
| 2024 | 504 | 332 | 3870 | 23 | 3 | 69 | 306 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 282.4 |
| 2025 | 512 | 340 | 3727 | 26 | 13 | 83 | 498 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 297.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 490.7 | 323 | 3577 | 23 | 7.7 | 68 | 344 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.3 | — | 5.7 | — | — | 276.1 |
The range of outcomes
Herbert's season-to-season history illustrates the variance a drafter should expect. His passing yardage has ranged from 3,134 (2023) to 3,870 (2024), and his passing touchdowns have ranged from 20 (2023) to 26 (2025). Interceptions have been volatile — 7 in 2023, 3 in 2024, 13 in 2025 — and fumbles have trended upward, reaching 7 in 2025 with 2 lost. The rushing floor has strengthened over the three-year window, but the turnover variance is the clearest source of downside risk. A low-interception, high-rushing season looks like his ceiling; a high-turnover, compressed passing season is the floor.
How to draft him
Herbert's market ADP is 80.3, which works out to pick 7.08 in a 12-team snake draft — that is where you would need to spend a pick to land him. Our model has him at #112 overall and QB8. His bye week is 7, which falls early in the season and is worth noting when constructing your roster. If you are targeting Herbert as your starting quarterback, plan accordingly for that Week 7 gap.
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Questions drafters ask
It has grown each year: 228 rush yards on 52 attempts in 2023, 306 on 69 in 2024, and 498 on 83 in 2025, for a three-year average of 344 rush yards and 68 rush attempts per season.
He is QB8 at his position and #112 overall, with a draft value of -11.7, placing him in Tier 9 on the board.
Interception variance is the most notable risk — he threw 7 in 2023, just 3 in 2024, and then 13 in 2025. Fumbles have also trended upward, reaching 7 in 2025 with 2 lost.
His market ADP is 80.3, which translates to pick 7.08 in a 12-team draft. That is the round-7 range where he is currently being selected in public drafts.