#132 overall · LAC · 236.8 projected half-PPR pts · -22.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 94.7
Justin Herbert — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Justin Herbert has posted back-to-back seasons of 3,800-plus passing yards, and his rushing contribution has grown each year: 228 rush yards in 2023, 306 in 2024, 498 in 2025, with 83 rush attempts last season alone. Over the three-year window he averages 344 rush yards and 2.3 rush touchdowns per season on top of 3,577 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns. That dual-threat floor is real and documented. His 2025 passing touchdown total of 26 is the highest of the three seasons on record, and his completion rate on 512 attempts (340 completions) held steady. The volume is there. The legs are increasingly part of the equation.
What the model projects
The projection is 236.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Herbert at QB15 and #132 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -22.5, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 236.8 is the headline number to carry into your draft prep.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 456 | 297 | 3134 | 20 | 7 | 52 | 228 | 3 | 4 | 238.7 |
| 2024 | 504 | 332 | 3870 | 23 | 3 | 69 | 306 | 2 | 6 | 282.4 |
| 2025 | 512 | 340 | 3727 | 26 | 13 | 83 | 498 | 2 | 7 | 297.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 490.7 | 323 | 3577 | 23 | 7.7 | 68 | 344 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 276.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The p10 floor is 90.1 points, a genuinely difficult outcome. The p25 is 165.6 and the median simulated season lands at 224.1. The upside band is more encouraging: the p75 is 292.4 and the p90 reaches 348.8. That gap between the floor and ceiling is substantial. The 2025 interception total of 13 against just 3 in 2024 illustrates how quickly the turnover picture can shift, and the three-year average of 7.7 interceptions per season sits between those two poles. Drafters are buying into a player whose outcomes are genuinely spread across a large range.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Herbert at pick 94.7 on average, which works out to round 8, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him. His bye is Week 7, which is early enough to plan around without major disruption. Given the negative draft value and the QB15 position rank, the calculus here is straightforward: Herbert is a late-round quarterback option, and the round 8 price reflects that. If you are running a late-QB strategy, this is the range where he becomes relevant to your plan.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 236.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him QB15 at the position and #132 overall, placing him in Tier 9.
His rush yards have climbed each of the last three seasons: 228 in 2023, 306 in 2024, and 498 in 2025. Rush attempts followed the same trend, reaching 83 last season. Over the three-year window he averages 344 rush yards and 2.3 rush touchdowns per season.
The p10 of the simulated season band is 90.1 points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons finished at or below that total. The p25 is 165.6. The floor is meaningful and drafters should account for it.
The market ADP is 94.7, which translates to round 8, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the average pick being spent on him across the platforms feeding this number.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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