#110 overall · PIT · 105.9 projected half-PPR pts · -11.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 81.7
Rico Dowdle — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Rico Dowdle arrives in Pittsburgh having posted back-to-back seasons of 1,000-plus rushing yards — 1,079 on 235 carries in 2024, then 1,076 on 236 carries in 2025. He also doubled his rushing touchdown output last season, going from 2 scores in 2024 to 6 in 2025, while holding his receiving work steady at 39 receptions on 50 targets for 297 yards. Over the last three seasons combined, he has averaged 186.7 rush attempts, 838.7 rush yards, 31.7 receptions, 230 receiving yards, 3.3 rushing touchdowns, and 2 receiving touchdowns per year. The fumble situation improved as well — 1 fumble, 1 lost in 2025 compared to 3 fumbles, 2 lost in 2024. The workload is real, the touchdown trend moved in the right direction, and the ball-security concern at least stabilized.
What the model projects
The model projects Dowdle at 105.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That output places him at RB31 and #110 overall, landing him in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value sits at -11.0, meaning the projection falls 11.0 points below the replacement-level baseline for running backs in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is a below-replacement-level projection at this stage, which is the central fact shaping how he fits into a roster construction plan.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 361 | 2 | 22 | 17 | 144 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 83.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 1079 | 2 | 49 | 39 | 249 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 178.3 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 1076 | 6 | 50 | 39 | 297 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 186.7 | 838.7 | 3.3 | 40.3 | 31.7 | 230 | 2 | 1.3 | — | — | 154.5 |
The range of outcomes
Dowdle's season-outcome band is not available in the current facts, so the honest answer is that the projection is a single point estimate of 105.9 half-PPR points. What the historical record does reveal is that his floor and ceiling have been shaped by two variables: touchdown volume and ball security. In 2024 he rushed for 1,079 yards but scored only 2 rushing touchdowns; in 2025 the yardage was nearly identical (1,076) but the rushing touchdowns jumped to 6, a swing that meaningfully changes fantasy value even when the workload stays flat. On the downside, the 2024 fumble season (3 fumbles, 2 lost) is a reminder that a bad stretch of ball security can cost him snaps. The range, in practical terms, runs from a touchdown-starved, fumble-prone season that keeps him well below replacement to a repeat of the 2025 touchdown rate that pushes him back toward relevance.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Dowdle going at pick 81.7 — round 7, pick 10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model ranks him #110 overall. His bye week is 9. At his current projection and draft value of -11.0, he is a depth piece rather than a building block. If you want him on your roster, round 7 is where the market says you will need to spend the pick. Given that the projection sits below replacement level, the calculus is whether you believe the 2025 touchdown rate is repeatable enough to close that gap — that is the question to answer before committing a seventh-round selection.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 105.9 half-PPR points, which is 11.0 points below the replacement-level baseline for running backs (draft value of -11.0). He ranks RB31 and #110 overall in Tier 9. That profile makes him a depth option rather than a reliable weekly starter at current projections.
He has logged 235 rush attempts in 2024 and 236 in 2025, producing 1,079 and 1,076 rushing yards respectively. He also caught 39 passes each of those two seasons. The volume has been consistent; the variance has come from touchdowns — 2 rushing scores in 2024 versus 6 in 2025.
Market ADP places him at pick 81.7, which is round 7, pick 10 in a 12-team draft (median across two platforms). That is the pick cost the market is currently charging.
In 2024 he had 3 fumbles and lost 2. In 2025 that improved to 1 fumble and 1 lost. Over the three-year aggregate (2023–2025) he averages 1.3 fumbles per season. It is a real concern but one that trended in the right direction last year.