#15 overall · BUF · 331.1 projected half-PPR pts · +63.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 26.2
Josh Allen — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Josh Allen has logged 111, 102, and 112 rush attempts in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, averaging 108.3 per season over that span. That rushing volume — paired with 544.7 average rush yards and 13.7 average rushing touchdowns per year — is the structural foundation of his fantasy value. It means Allen scores points through multiple channels every week, not just through the air. His three-year passing averages of 3,901.7 yards and 27.3 touchdowns per season add the ceiling. The dual-threat profile is consistent, not a one-year anomaly, and it is what separates his floor from a pocket-only quarterback's.
What the model projects
The projection is 331.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draftValue sits at +63.7, meaning he projects 63.7 points above the replacement-level quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR league. That surplus ranks him QB1 by draftValue at his position and #15 overall across all positions. He lands in Tier 4 on the full-board clustering — a tier that reflects his value relative to every position, not just quarterbacks.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 579 | 385 | 4306 | 29 | 18 | 111 | 524 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 404.6 |
| 2024 | 483 | 307 | 3731 | 28 | 6 | 102 | 531 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 383.0 |
| 2025 | 460 | 319 | 3668 | 25 | 10 | 112 | 579 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 372.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 507.3 | 337 | 3901.7 | 27.3 | 11.3 | 108.3 | 544.7 | 13.7 | — | — | 2.3 | 0.3 | 5.7 | — | — | 392.7 |
The range of outcomes
Allen's season-to-season history illustrates the variance a drafter should price in. Interceptions swung from 18 in 2023 down to 6 in 2024 and back to 10 in 2025. Fumbles lost ranged from 2 to 4 across the same window. Pass attempts have declined each year — 579, 483, 460 — while rush attempts have held steady near 108 per season. A downside season looks like the 2025 line: 3,668 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 14 rushing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost. An upside season looks more like 2023: 4,306 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 15 rushing touchdowns, with the rushing floor intact. The rushing volume is the stabilizer; the passing efficiency is where the range lives.
How to draft him
Allen carries a market ADP of 26.2, which works out to pick 3.02 in a 12-team snake draft — early in the third round. His bye is Week 7, which is worth noting for roster management but is not a reason to avoid him. At QB1 with a +63.7 draftValue surplus, the question is simply whether you want to commit a third-round pick to the position. If you do, that is the window the market is currently pricing him in.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the last three seasons (2023–2025) he has logged 111, 102, and 112 rush attempts respectively, averaging 108.3 per year. There is no meaningful declining trend in attempts, and he has averaged 544.7 rush yards and 13.7 rushing touchdowns per season across that window.
His draftValue of +63.7 means the projection has him finishing 63.7 half-PPR points above the replacement-level quarterback in a 12-team league. That surplus is what earns him the QB1 positionRank and the #15 overall rank.
His market ADP is 26.2 — pick 3.02 in a 12-team draft, meaning early in the third round is where he is currently being taken across public drafts.
His 2025 season is the softest recent data point: 3,668 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost, and 112 rush attempts for 579 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. Even in that down passing year, the rushing contribution held firm.