Jaxson Dart — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Jaxson Dart is a dual-threat quarterback. His 2025 season included 2,272 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, and 487 rushing yards on 86 attempts, with 9 rushing touchdowns added on top. That rushing production is the core of his fantasy appeal: quarterbacks who contribute on the ground have a floor that pure pocket passers do not, and Dart's 9 rushing scores in 2025 demonstrate that the ground game is a genuine part of his game, not a footnote. His 63.7 completion rate (216 of 339) shows functional accuracy, and the 5 interceptions against 15 passing touchdowns is a reasonable ratio for a young starter finding his footing. If the rushing volume holds, the fantasy upside is real even if the passing numbers stay modest.

What the model projects

The projection is 220.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That puts Dart at QB18 and #174 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -38.0, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 220.9 is the headline number; the median simulated season (p50) comes in at 203.9, a modest gap that reflects the distribution of outcomes around the projection.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 79.0 points, a number that reflects genuine downside risk. The 25th percentile sits at 145.7 points. The median simulated season is 203.9 points. At the optimistic end, the 75th percentile reaches 275.5 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 336.0 points. That spread from 79.0 to 336.0 is substantial, and it captures the reality of a young quarterback with limited NFL history. The upside is meaningful; so is the floor risk. Drafters should go in with eyes open on both ends.

How to draft him

Market ADP for Dart is 109.2, which works out to pick 10.01 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a 10th-round pick. The model has him at #174 overall and QB18. In most 12-team leagues, quarterback is a position where managers can wait, and Dart's negative draft value reflects that the projection does not clear replacement level. If you are targeting him as a late-round dart throw on rushing upside, the 10th round is the window the market is currently setting. His bye is Week 8, worth noting for roster management purposes.

The model projects him at 220.9 points, QB18, with a draft value of -38.0, meaning he projects below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is best framed as a late-round speculative option rather than a reliable weekly starter.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 336.0 points. That outcome would require his rushing production, 487 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2025, to hold or grow alongside improvement in the passing game. It is achievable but represents the top 10% of simulated seasons, not the base case.

It is central. His 2025 line included 86 rush attempts, 487 rush yards, and 9 rushing touchdowns. Those 9 scores alone represent a significant portion of his fantasy output. Without that ground contribution, the passing numbers, 2,272 yards and 15 touchdowns, would leave him well short of fantasy relevance.

Market ADP is 109.2, which translates to pick 10.01 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, the 10th round is where the market is currently pricing him.