#41 overall · DET · 148.1 projected half-PPR pts · +25.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 47.3
Jameson Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jameson Williams has back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons on the books. In 2024 he posted 1,001 yards, 58 receptions on 91 targets, and 7 receiving touchdowns. In 2025 he built on that: 1,117 yards, 65 receptions on 102 targets, and another 7 receiving touchdowns. That is a receiver who has shown he can handle a full target share and convert it into points. His three-year averages — 78.3 targets, 49 receptions, 824 receiving yards, and 5.3 receiving touchdowns per season — are pulled down by a limited 2023 (42 targets, 354 yards), which means the recent trend line is steeper than the averages suggest. Detroit's bye falls in Week 6, worth noting for roster management. The projection sits at +25.6 draft value above replacement, which is the foundation of his case.
What the model projects
The projection for Williams is 148.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That output places him #41 overall and WR22 by draft value. He sits in Tier 6 on the board. The projection reflects a receiver who has demonstrated the target volume and touchdown rate to produce at a WR2 level, with two consecutive seasons of 1,000-plus receiving yards and 7 receiving touchdowns each year serving as the recent production base.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 42 | 24 | 354 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 68.3 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 61 | 1 | 91 | 58 | 1001 | 7 | — | 0 | 0 | 183.2 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 102 | 65 | 1117 | 7 | — | 0 | 0 | 187.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 6.7 | 34 | 0.7 | 78.3 | 49 | 824 | 5.3 | 0.3 | — | — | 146.3 |
The range of outcomes
Williams carries real upside alongside meaningful variance. His 2023 season — 42 targets, 354 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns — is a reminder that a limited role or missed time can compress his output sharply. On the other hand, his 2024 and 2025 lines show what a full workload looks like: 91–102 targets, 58–65 receptions, 1,001–1,117 yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns in each year. The gap between a floor season and a ceiling season for Williams is wide. Touchdown variance is a particular driver: he has scored exactly 7 receiving touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, but that number can move in either direction. Drafters should expect a wide band of outcomes rather than a tight projection.
How to draft him
Williams is going off boards at an average draft position of 47.3, which works out to pick 4.11 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the window you need to be prepared to spend a pick if you want him on your roster. His rank is #41 overall and WR22. Plan your board around the fourth round if Williams is a target — waiting longer risks losing him before your next selection.
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Questions drafters ask
His last two seasons — 1,001 yards and 7 TDs in 2024, 1,117 yards and 7 TDs in 2025 — show he can produce at a WR2 level when healthy and involved. But his 2023 (42 targets, 354 yards) is a real data point on the floor. The range of outcomes is wide, so he carries both upside and risk.
His market ADP is 47.3, which translates to pick 4.11 in a 12-team draft. If he's on your board, be ready to use a fourth-round pick to secure him.
It has grown each year in the sample: 42 targets in 2023, 91 in 2024, and 102 in 2025. The three-year average is 78.3 targets per season, but the most recent two seasons sit well above that average.
He has scored 7 receiving touchdowns in each of the last two seasons (2024 and 2025), with a three-year average of 5.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2023 season (2 receiving TDs) anchors the low end of that range.