#312 overall · SF · 44.3 projected half-PPR pts · -78.2 Draft Value
Christian Kirk — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Christian Kirk is now with San Francisco, a franchise that has consistently deployed multiple receivers in its offense. His 2023 season stands as the clearest evidence of what he can do: 85 targets, 57 receptions, 787 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. That is a legitimate WR2 workload in a single season. The three-year average of 61.3 targets and 37.3 receptions per season reflects the volatility in his recent usage, but the 2023 floor is real and on the record. If his role expands in San Francisco, that prior-season ceiling is the reference point.
What the model projects
The projection for Kirk in 2026 is 44.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -78.2, meaning he projects below replacement level at the wide receiver position. He ranks WR100 at the position level and #312 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. His bye week is Week 8.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 85 | 57 | 787 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 121.8 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 27 | 379 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 57.4 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 28 | 239 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 43.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | — | — | 0.3 | 2 | — | 61.3 | 37.3 | 468.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | — | — | 75.9 |
The range of outcomes
Kirk's three-season history tells the story of the outcome band plainly. In 2023 he posted 787 receiving yards, 57 receptions, and 3 touchdowns on 85 targets. In 2024 those numbers fell to 379 yards, 27 receptions, and 1 touchdown on 47 targets. In 2025 they fell further to 239 yards, 28 receptions, and 1 touchdown on 52 targets. The three-year averages — 468.3 receiving yards, 37.3 receptions, 1.7 receiving touchdowns, 61.3 targets — sit well below the 2023 peak. The gap between his best recent season and his most recent two is wide, and that variance is baked into where the projection lands.
How to draft him
Kirk is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. He is a deep-roster consideration at best, ranked #312 overall and WR100. At 44.3 projected points and a draft value of -78.2, he is a player to monitor for late-season waiver relevance rather than a target in a standard 12-team snake draft. If you are building a deep bench or playing in a large-roster format, his 2023 track record gives him a non-zero upside argument — but the projection and rank reflect where the probability mass actually sits.
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Questions drafters ask
At 44.3 projected points, a draft value of -78.2, and a rank of WR100 (#312 overall), he projects below replacement level. He does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough to register one. He is a deep-bench or waiver-wire name, not a standard roster target.
Over the last three seasons his per-year averages are 61.3 targets, 37.3 receptions, 468.3 receiving yards, and 1.7 receiving touchdowns. His 2023 season was the outlier on the high end — 85 targets, 57 catches, 787 yards, 3 TDs — while 2024 (47 targets, 27 catches, 379 yards, 1 TD) and 2025 (52 targets, 28 catches, 239 yards, 1 TD) were considerably lighter.
He is in Tier 9, which reflects the clustering of players at the lower end of draft value across all positions. His #312 overall rank and WR100 position rank place him at the tail of the board.
Week 8.