#249 overall · JAX · 54.3 projected half-PPR pts · -62.6 Draft Value
Chris Rodriguez — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Chris Rodriguez's 2025 season was the clearest evidence yet that he can produce when given the opportunity. He carried the ball 112 times for 500 rush yards and scored 6 rushing touchdowns — a sharp step up from 51 attempts and 247 yards in 2023 and just 35 attempts and 173 yards in 2024. The touchdown rate in 2025 was real: 6 scores on 112 carries is a legitimate red-zone presence. His three-year averages — 66 rush attempts, 306.7 rush yards, and 3.3 rush touchdowns per season — are held down by those limited early years, meaning 2025 is the most relevant data point in the set. He's a JAX back with a bye in Week 7, and his 2025 line shows he can handle a workload when it comes his way.
What the model projects
The projection for Rodriguez in 2026 is 54.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -62.6, placing him #249 overall and RB54 in Tier 9. That is a below-replacement projection at the running back position — the negative draft value reflects the gap between what he is expected to produce and what a freely available replacement-level back would provide in a 12-team half-PPR league.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 247 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 173 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 31.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 112 | 500 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 90.5 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 66 | 306.7 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 18 | — | 0.3 | — | — | 53.3 |
The range of outcomes
Rodriguez's recent history illustrates exactly why the outcome band matters here. His carry totals have swung from 35 to 51 to 112 across three seasons — the variance in opportunity alone is enormous. A season closer to his 2025 workload (112 carries, 6 TDs) looks very different from one closer to his 2024 floor (35 carries, 2 TDs, 173 yards). His receiving work has been minimal across all three years — 2 receptions in 2023, 1 in 2024, 3 in 2025, with 30 receiving yards in his best pass-catching season — so the upside path runs almost entirely through rush volume and touchdowns. The downside is a near-zero fantasy footprint.
How to draft him
Rodriguez does not have a market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, which means he is not being consistently drafted in standard snake drafts at this time. He is a late-roster or waiver-wire name to monitor rather than a pick you need to plan around. At RB54 and #249 overall in Tier 9, the projection is below replacement level — he belongs on your watch list, not your draft board, unless your league's roster depth or scoring settings create a specific reason to stash him. His Week 7 bye is worth noting for roster management if he does land on your team.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 54.3 points and a draft value of -62.6 put him at RB54 and #249 overall in Tier 9 — below replacement level. He does not have a market ADP in public 2026 drafts, meaning he is not being consistently selected. He is a watch-list back, not a planned draft pick.
He carried the ball 112 times for 500 rush yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, adding 3 receptions for 30 receiving yards. That was his most productive season across the three years on record, up from 51 carries and 2 TDs in 2023 and 35 carries and 2 TDs in 2024.
Opportunity variance. His carry totals have ranged from 35 to 112 across three seasons. His receiving role has been minimal in every year — never more than 3 receptions or 30 receiving yards in a season — so his fantasy value is almost entirely dependent on rush volume and touchdowns, both of which have been inconsistent.
Week 7.