#73 overall · DEN · 145.8 projected half-PPR pts · +0.0 Draft Value
Denver Broncos — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Denver Broncos arrive at 2026 drafts as DST1 — the top-ranked defense in the rankings — and the three-year track record earns that standing. Over the 2023–2025 window, Denver averaged 57.7 sacks, 12 interceptions, 13.3 forced fumbles, and 9.3 fumbles recovered per season. The sack totals tell a clear upward story: 42 in 2023, 63 in 2024, 68 in 2025. Interceptions held steady across all three years (11, 15, 10), and the defense posted at least one safety in each of the last two seasons. Points allowed dropped sharply from 413 in 2023 to 311 in both 2024 and 2025, and in 2024 Denver held opponents to six points or fewer in two games and posted a shutout. That combination of pass-rush volume, turnover production, and tightening point totals is the foundation of the projection.
What the model projects
The projection is 145.8 half-PPR fantasy points, which lands Denver at #73 overall and DST1. The draft value sits at +0.0, meaning the projection lands right at replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Denver's bye is Week 10, a mid-season absence drafters should factor into their roster construction.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 0 | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 42 | 11 | 19 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 413 | — | — | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 127.0 |
| 2024 | 63 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 311 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 177.0 |
| 2025 | 68 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 2 | — | 311 | — | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | 148.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 57.7 | 12 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 2 | 0.7 | 345 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 127.0 |
The range of outcomes
Denver's season-to-season history illustrates how wide DST variance can run. Sacks ranged from 42 to 68 across three years. Points allowed swung from 413 down to 311. Fumble recoveries dropped from 15 in 2023 to 4 in 2025 — a reminder that turnover luck is among the least stable inputs in a defense's stat line. In 2024, Denver had one shutout and two games allowing six or fewer points; in 2023, three games allowed 35 or more. The upside is real given the pass-rush trajectory, but the floor is equally real given how volatile individual-game scoring can be for any defense.
How to draft him
Denver is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no public draft-slot data to report. What the rankings do say is clear: DST1 at #73 overall. In a standard 12-team snake draft, the DST position is typically addressed in the final rounds, and Denver's standing at the top of the position means it will be among the first defenses taken whenever drafters begin targeting the position. The Week 10 bye is a real cost — plan a streaming option for that week rather than leaving the slot empty.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes. Denver sits at DST1 and #73 overall in the rankings, making it the top-ranked defense in this 12-team half-PPR format.
Denver recorded 42 sacks in 2023, 63 in 2024, and 68 in 2025, for a three-year average of 57.7 per season — a consistent upward trend across all three years.
Denver's bye is Week 10. It is worth accounting for in roster construction — plan to have a streaming defense available that week rather than leaving the slot uncovered.
Quite volatile. Fumble recoveries ranged from 15 in 2023 down to 4 in 2025. Points allowed swung from 413 in 2023 to 311 in both 2024 and 2025. In 2024 Denver had a shutout and two games allowing six or fewer points; in 2023 they allowed 35 or more points in three games. Turnover luck and game-by-game scoring variance are the primary drivers of that spread.
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Beyond the numbers
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