#4 overall · ATL · 230.5 projected half-PPR pts · +113.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 1.6
Bijan Robinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Bijan Robinson has done something rare across three NFL seasons: he has been a workhorse runner and a genuine receiving threat at the same time. In 2024 he carried the ball 304 times for 1,456 rush yards and 14 rushing touchdowns while catching 61 of 72 targets for 431 receiving yards. In 2025 the rushing volume stayed high — 287 attempts, 1,478 yards — and his receiving role expanded to 103 targets, 79 receptions, and 820 receiving yards, adding 4 receiving touchdowns. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 268.3 rush attempts, 1,303.3 rush yards, 87 targets, 66 receptions, 579.3 receiving yards, 8.3 rushing touchdowns, and 3 receiving touchdowns per year. That combination of volume on the ground and genuine involvement in the passing game is what makes him a foundational piece of any fantasy roster.
What the model projects
The model projects Robinson at 230.5 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That projection produces a draft value of +113.7 — meaning he projects 113.7 points above the replacement-level running back in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #4 overall and RB2 by that value-over-replacement measure, and he sits in Tier 2 on the full positional board. The projection reflects a player who has demonstrated the ability to sustain elite rushing volume while maintaining a high-target receiving role, and the numbers place him among the very top assets available in 2026 drafts.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 976 | 4 | 86 | 58 | 487 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 217.3 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 304 | 1456 | 14 | 72 | 61 | 431 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 309.2 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 287 | 1478 | 7 | 103 | 79 | 820 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 329.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 268.3 | 1303.3 | 8.3 | 87 | 66 | 579.3 | 3 | 3 | — | — | 289.1 |
The range of outcomes
Robinson's floor is real but not without risk. He has fumbled 4 times in both 2023 and 2025, losing 3 in each of those seasons, and fumble variance is one of the cleaner ways a high-volume back can lose fantasy value in a hurry. His touchdown rate also fluctuated meaningfully — 14 rushing touchdowns in 2024 dropped to 7 in 2025 — so the scoring upside is genuine but not guaranteed to repeat at peak levels. On the upside, his receiving role grew to 103 targets and 820 receiving yards in 2025, a ceiling that keeps him relevant even in weeks where the run game is contained. The band of simulated outcomes reflects a player whose median is elite but whose variance is driven by touchdown regression and ball-security events rather than volume uncertainty.
How to draft him
Robinson's market ADP is 1.6, which in a 12-team snake draft translates to pick 1.02 — the second pick of the first round. That is where you will need to spend to secure him. His bye week is 11, which falls in the middle of the fantasy season; plan your roster depth accordingly so a Week 11 absence does not cost you a crucial matchup. At RB2 and #4 overall with a +113.7 draft value, he is a player whose profile justifies early first-round commitment, and the decision at that pick comes down to whether you want to anchor your roster around a back with this kind of dual-threat production history.
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Questions drafters ask
He is a genuine three-down back. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 87 targets and 66 receptions per year alongside 268.3 rush attempts. In 2025 specifically he saw 103 targets and caught 79 passes for 820 receiving yards, confirming his role in the passing game is not incidental.
His market ADP is 1.6, which works out to pick 1.02 in a 12-team snake draft — the second overall pick of the first round. If you want him, that is the price the market is currently charging.
Robinson's bye is Week 11, which lands in the heart of the fantasy regular season. It is worth building roster depth at running back so a Week 11 absence does not leave you exposed in a high-stakes matchup.
Ball security and touchdown variance are the two clearest risks. He fumbled 4 times and lost 3 in both 2023 and 2025. His rushing touchdowns also swung from 14 in 2024 down to 7 in 2025, so peak scoring output is not a lock to repeat. Volume, however, has been consistent — he has averaged 268.3 rush attempts per season over the last three years.