Bijan Robinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Bijan Robinson has been one of the most complete backs in the NFL across three seasons. In 2025 he posted 1,478 rushing yards on 287 attempts, caught 79 of 103 targets for 820 receiving yards, and scored 11 touchdowns. That receiving line is the part that separates him from most backs at his tier: 103 targets and 820 yards through the air give him a floor that holds up even when the ground game cools. His three-year averages tell the same story: 268.3 rush attempts, 87 targets, 1,303.3 rushing yards, and 579.3 receiving yards per season. The workload is real, the role in the passing game is real, and the production has followed. He is RB2 and #2 overall in this set of rankings, sitting in Tier 1 with a draft value of +155.6 points above replacement.

What the model projects

The projection is 284.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That is the headline number, and it reflects a back who is expected to carry a full workload on the ground while remaining a genuine receiving option out of the backfield. His draft value of +155.6 is the surplus above replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Tier 1 placement means he is grouped with the players at the very top of the overall rankings. His bye week is Week 11.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band runs from 187.5 points at the 10th percentile to 377.0 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season lands at 295.6 points, slightly above the 284.1 point estimate. The 25th percentile is 238.9 and the 75th is 343.9, so the middle half of outcomes spans roughly 105 points. The downside is real: a 10th-percentile season at 187.5 points is a meaningful step back from the projection, and his fumble history adds a layer of variance worth noting. He lost three fumbles in both 2023 and 2025, with just one in 2024. The upside, however, is substantial: a 90th-percentile finish at 377.0 points would represent one of the strongest individual seasons a running back can produce in this format.

How to draft him

Robinson's market ADP is 2.4, which works out to pick 1.02 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. In practical terms, you are spending the second overall pick to get him. He is #2 overall in the rankings and RB2 at his position. If you hold the second pick, he is the expected selection. If you hold another early slot, the question is whether he is still on the board when you pick. At pick 1.02 on average, the answer in most drafts is no. Plan accordingly: if Robinson is your target, you likely need the first or second overall selection to land him.

Across 2023, 2024, and 2025, Robinson averaged 87 targets and 66 receptions per season. His 2025 season was his heaviest in the passing game: 103 targets, 79 receptions, and 820 receiving yards. His three-year average of 579.3 receiving yards per season reflects a consistent role as a pass-catching back, not just a runner.

His market ADP is 2.4, which translates to pick 1.02 in a 12-team snake draft. In most drafts, you need the first or second overall pick to have a realistic shot at him.

The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 187.5 half-PPR points. That represents the bottom 10% of projected season outcomes and is a significant drop from the 284.1-point projection. His fumble history is a contributing factor to that variance: he lost three fumbles in 2023 and again in 2025.

He is ranked #2 overall and RB2 in a 12-team half-PPR format, with a draft value of +155.6 points above replacement. He sits in Tier 1, the top grouping in the overall rankings.