#204 overall · SEA · 69.9 projected half-PPR pts · -42.1 Draft Value
AJ Barner — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
AJ Barner took a meaningful step forward in 2025. He turned 68 targets into 52 receptions for 519 yards and 6 receiving touchdowns, adding 10 rush attempts, 14 rush yards, and a rushing score on top of that. The catch rate and touchdown production represent a genuine leap from his 2024 line of 30 catches, 245 yards, and 4 scores on 38 targets. His three-year averages — 53 targets, 41 receptions, 382 yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per season — show a player whose role has been expanding. For a drafter willing to wait at tight end, Barner's 2025 season is the most recent evidence of what the position can look like when things go right for him in Seattle.
What the model projects
The projection for Barner in 2026 is 69.9 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -42.1, placing him #204 overall and TE29 in Tier 9. That negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 11.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 30 | 245 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 63.5 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 68 | 52 | 519 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 121.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 7 | 0.5 | 53 | 41 | 382 | 5 | 1 | — | — | 92.4 |
The range of outcomes
Barner's 2025 season — 519 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns, and a rushing score — shows the ceiling is real. His 2024 line of 245 yards and 4 touchdowns on 38 targets shows the floor is considerably lower. The two-fumble 2025 campaign is a note worth carrying into 2026. The spread between his best and worst recent seasons is wide, and that variance is baked into any honest assessment of what he can deliver.
How to draft him
Barner is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no established draft-slot cost to plan around — he is available as a late-round or post-draft addition in most leagues. At TE29 and #204 overall with a -42.1 draft value, he profiles as a depth option or a speculative add rather than a planned starter. If you are building a roster that needs a late-game tight end flier with some touchdown upside on the books, Barner's 2025 production gives you a factual basis for the bet. Just go in with eyes open on the projection.
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Questions drafters ask
Barner caught 52 of 68 targets for 519 receiving yards and 6 receiving touchdowns. He also carried the ball 10 times for 14 yards and a rushing score, giving him 7 total touchdowns on the season. He did fumble twice.
The projection is 69.9 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -42.1, which places him #204 overall and TE29 in Tier 9 — below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Barner does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is effectively undrafted in most leagues, available off the waiver wire or as a late speculative add.
His three-year averages (2023–2025) are 53 targets, 41 receptions, 382 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per season. His 2025 line (68 targets, 52 catches, 519 yards, 6 TDs) was well above those averages, while his 2024 line (38 targets, 30 catches, 245 yards, 4 TDs) was below them — the range between his seasons is meaningful.