Samaje Perine — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Samaje Perine has been a consistent presence in the Cincinnati backfield across three seasons. In 2023 he caught 50 passes on 56 targets for 455 receiving yards, showing genuine pass-game utility. In 2025 his rushing profile expanded: 84 carries for 382 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, the most productive ground output of the three-year window. The three-year averages tell a balanced story: 52.3 rush attempts, 37.3 targets, 31.7 receptions, and 288 receiving yards per season. That dual-threat floor is the core of any argument for rostering him.

What the model projects

The projection is 46.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That produces a draft value of -80.2, placing Perine at RB68 and #302 overall in Tier 9. The numbers reflect a player operating well below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline figure; the median simulated season, at 29.6 points, sits noticeably below it, which signals that the distribution of outcomes is skewed toward the upside rather than centered on the point estimate.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is just 9.6. The median simulated season is 29.6 points. Move to the 75th percentile and the number jumps to 70.1; the 90th-percentile outcome reaches 106.4. That is a significant spread from floor to ceiling, and the gap between the median and the top decile is the defining feature of this band. The fumble history adds context: Perine has lost 2 fumbles in both 2023 and 2025, with 3 fumbles each of those seasons. That is a real variable in any outcome scenario.

How to draft him

Perine does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to register a median pick. In a standard 12-team snake draft he is a late-round or undrafted consideration, available on the waiver wire in most leagues. At RB68 and #302 overall, he is a depth add rather than a draft-day target. The case for adding him rests entirely on the upside tail of that outcome band: the 90th-percentile season at 106.4 points is real, but the median at 29.6 points is the more honest planning number. Roster him where roster spots are free.

He carries no market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently in public 2026 drafts. At RB68 and #302 overall with a projected 46.9 points and a draft value of -80.2, he sits well below replacement level. The median simulated season is 29.6 points. He is a waiver-wire or final-round depth add, not a pick you need to spend early.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 106.4 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 70.1. Those are the numbers that define his ceiling. The floor is equally real: 10% of simulated seasons finish at 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is just 9.6.

His receiving work was heaviest in 2023: 50 receptions on 56 targets for 455 yards. In 2024 both rushing and receiving volume dropped sharply. In 2025 the rushing role grew to 84 attempts and 382 yards with 3 rushing touchdowns, while receiving work fell to 17 catches on 21 targets for 87 yards. The three-year averages sit at 52.3 rush attempts and 37.3 targets per season.

It is worth noting. Perine had 3 fumbles and 2 lost in 2023, and again 3 fumbles and 2 lost in 2025. The three-year average is 2.0 fumbles per season. That is a consistent pattern across the available history and a real factor in the wide outcome band.