#237 overall · LAC · 66.4 projected half-PPR pts · -60.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 154.4
Keaton Mitchell — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Keaton Mitchell is now with the Chargers, and his three-year track record shows a back who can produce when given the ball. In 2023, his most active season, he carried 47 times for 396 yards and added 9 receptions for 93 yards through the air. In 2025 he returned to a similar role, posting 341 rush yards on 59 attempts with 9 receptions for 63 yards and a rushing touchdown. The three-year per-season averages tell a consistent story: 40.3 rush attempts, 255.7 rush yards, 8 targets, and 6.3 receptions. He is a legitimate dual-threat back who has demonstrated the ability to contribute both on the ground and as a receiver when given the opportunity.
What the model projects
The projection is 66.4 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That places Mitchell at RB54 and #237 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -60.9, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 47 | 396 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 93 | — | 65.4 |
| 2024 | 15 | 30 | — | 1 | 1 | 28 | — | 6.3 |
| 2025 | 59 | 341 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 63 | 1 | 50.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 40.3 | 255.7 | 1 | 8 | 6.3 | 61.3 | 0.3 | 40.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which reflects the genuine uncertainty in Mitchell's role. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 7.2 points, and the 25th percentile comes in at 25.2. The median simulated season is 57.2 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 98.9 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at 142.0 points. That gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial. A season near the low end looks like a near-zero fantasy contributor; a season near the high end looks like a viable weekly starter. His 2024 line of 15 carries for 30 yards and 1 reception illustrates how thin the floor can get, while his 2023 output shows what the ceiling looks like when volume arrives.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Mitchell going at pick 154.4, which translates to round 13, pick 10 in a 12-team draft. That is late-round territory, and the pick cost reflects his current standing as a depth back. The projection of 66.4 points and a Tier 9 placement at #237 overall confirm he is a late-roster addition rather than a core piece. Draft him as a handcuff or a high-upside flier in the final rounds, with the understanding that the 142.0-point p90 outcome is real but requires a significant increase in opportunity. His bye is Week 7, worth noting when constructing the back end of your roster.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2023 he carried 47 times for 396 yards, caught 9 of 11 targets for 93 yards, and scored 2 rushing touchdowns. In 2024 his workload dropped sharply to 15 carries for 30 yards and 1 reception. In 2025 he posted 59 carries for 341 yards, 9 receptions for 63 yards, and 1 rushing touchdown. His three-year per-season averages are 40.3 rush attempts, 255.7 rush yards, 8 targets, and 6.3 receptions.
The projection is 66.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him RB54 and #237 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -60.9, which is below replacement level at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The simulated season band runs from 7.2 points at the 10th percentile to 142.0 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 57.2 points. The 75th percentile sits at 98.9 points, so roughly one in four simulated seasons has him approaching or exceeding low-end starter production.
Market ADP places him at pick 154.4, or round 13, pick 10 in a 12-team draft. That is based on a median across 2 platforms. At that price he is a late-round depth add, consistent with his Tier 9 standing at #237 overall.
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Beyond the numbers
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