#299 overall · LAC · 43.7 projected half-PPR pts · -73.1 Draft Value
Keaton Mitchell — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Keaton Mitchell is now on the Chargers, and the case for him is thin but real: he has shown he can produce on the ground when given a role. In 2023, he posted 396 rush yards on 47 attempts with 2 rushing touchdowns. In 2025, he put up 341 rush yards and a touchdown on 59 carries, adding 9 receptions for 63 yards. Over three seasons, his per-year averages sit at 255.7 rush yards, 40.3 rush attempts, 6.3 receptions, and 61.3 receiving yards. He is a late-round flier for drafters who want a handcuff or a depth piece with some demonstrated on-field production.
What the model projects
The projection is 43.7 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value is -73.1, meaning he projects below replacement level at the running back position. He ranks #299 overall and RB65, sitting in Tier 9 on the board. These numbers reflect a player at the outer edge of the fantasy-relevant pool.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 396 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 93 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 65.4 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 341 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.9 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 40.3 | 255.7 | 1 | 8 | 6.3 | 61.3 | — | 0.3 | — | — | 40.9 |
The range of outcomes
No band data is available for Mitchell, so the full percentile spread cannot be reported here. What the history does show is meaningful variance: 396 rush yards and 2 touchdowns in 2023, 30 rush yards and 0 touchdowns in 2024, and 341 rush yards and 1 touchdown in 2025. The three-year aggregate of 255.7 rush yards per season captures that inconsistency. His bye week falls in Week 7.
How to draft him
Mitchell does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. That tells you everything about where he sits in the consensus: he is a player you can target on the waiver wire or at the very end of a draft without spending a meaningful pick. At RB65 and #299 overall, he is a depth add, not a draft-day priority. If you are building a deep bench and want a Chargers backfield option with a track record of at least occasional volume, he is available late or off the board entirely.
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Questions drafters ask
He ranks RB65 and #299 overall with a draft value of -73.1, which puts him below replacement level at the position. He has no market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted. He is a late-bench or waiver-wire target, not a pick you need to plan around.
Over three seasons (2023–2025), he averaged 255.7 rush yards, 40.3 rush attempts, 6.3 receptions, and 61.3 receiving yards per year. His best single season was 2023: 396 rush yards, 47 attempts, 2 rushing touchdowns, and 9 receptions for 93 yards. In 2025 he posted 341 rush yards and 1 touchdown on 59 carries.
The projection is 43.7 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -73.1, placing him at RB65 and #299 overall in Tier 9.
Week 7.