#300 overall · SF · 49.1 projected half-PPR pts · -73.5 Draft Value
Demarcus Robinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Demarcus Robinson has shown a consistent ability to find the end zone. In 2023 he caught 4 touchdown passes on just 39 targets, and in 2024 he turned 64 targets into 7 receiving touchdowns — a touchdown rate that kept him relevant in half-PPR formats despite modest yardage totals. His three-year average of 4 receiving touchdowns per season is the thread that makes him worth a look as a late-roster flier. He is on San Francisco's bye in Week 8, which is worth noting for roster management purposes.
What the model projects
The projection for Robinson in 2026 is 49.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -73.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position. He is ranked #300 overall and WR97, placed in Tier 9 on the board.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 39 | 26 | 371 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 74.4 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 31 | 505 | 7 | — | 0 | 0 | 108.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 35 | 22 | 276 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 45.2 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7 | 9.7 | — | 46 | 26.3 | 384 | 4 | 0.7 | — | — | 76.5 |
The range of outcomes
Robinson's recent season-by-season results illustrate the variance baked into his profile. He posted 505 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in 2024, then followed with 276 yards and 1 touchdown on 35 targets in 2025. His three-year averages — 384 receiving yards, 26.3 receptions, 46 targets, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season — sit well below what a fantasy-relevant starter typically produces. The upside scenario leans heavily on touchdown volume repeating at or near his 2024 pace; the downside is a repeat of 2025, where the touchdowns dried up and the target share was thin.
How to draft him
Robinson is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. At #300 overall and WR97 in Tier 9, he projects as a below-replacement-level option. He belongs at the very back end of a draft — or on the waiver wire — as a touchdown-dependent stash rather than a roster cornerstone.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 49.1 fantasy points with a draft value of -73.5, placing him below replacement level at WR (WR97, #300 overall, Tier 9). He is a back-of-roster stash at best, not a reliable starter.
He caught 7 receiving touchdowns in 2024 on 64 targets, and 4 in 2023 on 39 targets. His three-year average is 4 receiving touchdowns per season. The upside is real but inconsistent — he managed only 1 touchdown in 2025.
His three-year average is 46 targets per season. Season-by-season: 39 targets in 2023, 64 in 2024, and 35 in 2025. The 2024 peak has not been sustained.
He carries no consistent market ADP across platforms. At #300 overall and WR97, he is a late-draft or post-draft addition — not a player who requires an early or mid-round commitment.