Demarcus Robinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Demarcus Robinson is a veteran wide receiver on San Francisco's roster with three seasons of NFL production on record. His best year came in 2024, when he posted 505 receiving yards, 31 receptions on 64 targets, and 7 receiving touchdowns. That touchdown total is the clearest argument in his favor: he has averaged 4 receiving touchdowns per season over the last three years, and a receiver who finds the end zone consistently carries real half-PPR upside even on a modest target share. His three-year average of 46 targets and 26.3 receptions per season reflects a role that has been real, if limited.

What the model projects

The projection for Robinson is 42.3 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value is -86.4, placing him #324 overall and at WR109 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player projected well below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline number; the median simulated season, at 24.8 points, sits below it, which signals that the distribution of outcomes is skewed toward the upside rather than centered on the point estimate.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide and heavily skewed. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is just 8.3. The median simulated season lands at 24.8 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 56.3 points and the 90th percentile reaches 94.5. That shape, a floor near zero and a ceiling approaching 95 points, describes a player whose most likely outcome is minimal fantasy contribution but who carries a real, if infrequent, high-end scenario. The 2025 season, in which he managed 276 receiving yards, 22 receptions, and 1 touchdown on 35 targets, illustrates what the lower portion of that band looks like in practice.

How to draft him

Robinson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In a standard 12-team snake draft, he is a late-round or post-draft addition at best. At WR109 and #324 overall, he belongs on a roster only as a deep depth piece or a speculative stash. His bye is Week 8. If you are targeting him, the realistic path to value runs through touchdown variance; the volume profile alone, averaging 46 targets per season over three years, does not support a meaningful weekly role.

The model ranks him WR109 and #324 overall with a draft value of -86.4, which is well below replacement level. He projects for 42.3 fantasy points on the season. He is a deep depth or speculative add, not a player to spend a meaningful pick on.

Over the last three seasons he has averaged 384 receiving yards, 26.3 receptions, 46 targets, and 4 receiving touchdowns per year. His best single season was 2024 with 505 yards, 64 targets, and 7 touchdowns. His 2025 line dropped to 276 yards, 35 targets, and 1 touchdown.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 94.5 half-PPR points. That is the top-10% outcome. The 75th percentile is 56.3 points. The distribution is heavily skewed, so the high-end scenario exists but represents a minority of simulated seasons.

The 10th-percentile simulated season is 0.0 points and the 25th percentile is 8.3. The median simulated season is 24.8 points. A near-zero fantasy output is a real possibility in a meaningful share of simulated seasons.