#310 overall · BUF · 46.4 projected half-PPR pts · -82.3 Draft Value
Joshua Palmer — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Joshua Palmer is now on the Bills, a team that runs a high-volume passing offense. His three-year average of 54.3 targets per season shows he can hold a role in a functioning offense, and his 2023 and 2024 campaigns were nearly identical: 61 and 65 targets, 38 and 39 receptions, 581 and 584 receiving yards. That kind of consistency tells you what a full, healthy season looks like for him. The Bills' system gives any receiver with a real role a credible path to production, and Palmer has demonstrated he can be that receiver.
What the model projects
The projection is 46.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at WR106 and #310 overall, placing Palmer in Tier 9. His draft value is -82.3, which means the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect a player on the outer edge of fantasy relevance at his current standing in the depth chart.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 61 | 38 | 581 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 87.7 |
| 2024 | 65 | 39 | 584 | 1 | — | — | — | 83.9 |
| 2025 | 37 | 22 | 303 | — | — | — | — | 41.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 54.3 | 33 | 489.3 | 1 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.3 | 71.6 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The median outcome is 28.6 points, already below the 46.4 point estimate, and the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at exactly 0.0 points. The 25th percentile is just 10.6 points. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 60.7 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons produces 100.4 points. That 100.4 ceiling is real, but the distribution makes clear that the most likely outcomes cluster at the low end. This is a high-variance profile: the floor is a near-zero season, and the ceiling requires things to break right.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Palmer does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. In a 12-team half-PPR league, he is a late-round or post-draft addition at best. His value case rests entirely on a change in role or opportunity. At WR106 and #310 overall, he belongs on a watch list rather than a draft list for most formats. If you are building a deep roster and want a high-variance flier with a legitimate 100-point ceiling, he is a name to monitor, but the projection and the band both say the base case is minimal production.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2023 he saw 61 targets, in 2024 he saw 65, and in 2025 that dropped to 37. His three-year average is 54.3 targets per season, so the 2025 number was a meaningful step down from his prior two full campaigns.
The 90th-percentile simulated season produces 100.4 half-PPR points. That is the top 10 percent of outcomes. The 75th percentile is 60.7 points. Both numbers require a significant role increase from where the projection currently sits.
His projection is 46.4 points with a draft value of -82.3, placing him at WR106 and #310 overall in Tier 9. He projects below replacement level, and he has no consistent market ADP across public drafts. He is a post-draft or deep-roster consideration, not a pick most drafters should plan around.
His 2023 and 2024 seasons were nearly identical: 38 and 39 receptions, 581 and 584 receiving yards, on 61 and 65 targets respectively. His 2025 line of 22 receptions, 303 yards, and 37 targets was a step back from that baseline.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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