#180 overall · DET · 81.8 projected half-PPR pts · -35.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 164.7
Isiah Pacheco — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Isiah Pacheco arrives in Detroit with a real résumé. In 2023 he posted 935 rush yards, 205 carries, 44 receptions on 49 targets, and nine total touchdowns — a workload that established him as a legitimate three-down back. The receiving profile is genuine: 44 catches for 244 yards in 2023 shows he can contribute in the pass game, and his three-year average of 25 receptions and 141.3 receiving yards per season confirms it isn't a one-year anomaly. Ball security has been solid over that same stretch, with just 0.3 fumbles per season on average. If the opportunity opens up in Detroit, the skill set to handle a full role is already on his tape.
What the model projects
The projection is 81.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places Pacheco at RB42 and #180 overall, landing him in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value sits at -35.0, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the running back position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. Detroit's bye week falls in Week 6.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 935 | 7 | 49 | 44 | 244 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 191.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 310 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 79 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 50.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 462 | 1 | 26 | 19 | 101 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 77.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 135.3 | 569 | 3 | 30.3 | 25 | 141.3 | 1 | 0.3 | — | — | 107.5 |
The range of outcomes
Pacheco's recent season-by-season numbers illustrate how wide his outcome band can run. In 2023 he logged 205 carries, 935 rush yards, and nine total touchdowns. In 2024 that fell to 83 carries, 310 rush yards, and one touchdown. In 2025 he posted 118 carries, 462 rush yards, and two total touchdowns. The three-year per-season averages — 135.3 rush attempts, 569 rush yards, 3 rush touchdowns, 25 receptions, 141.3 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown — sit well below his 2023 peak. The variance in his recent history is real, and the gap between a 2023-style season and a 2024-style season is substantial. Drafters should price in both possibilities.
How to draft him
Market ADP on Pacheco is 164.7, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 14.09 in a 12-team snake draft — late in the 14th round. Our model has him at #180 overall and RB42. At that draft slot, he is a late-round flier. He fits best as a depth piece or handcuff stash rather than a core roster building block. His Week 6 bye is worth noting when constructing your roster around him.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 81.8 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks RB42 at #180 overall and sits in Tier 9, with a draft value of -35.0 — below replacement level at the running back position.
Yes, the track record is there. In 2023 he caught 44 of 49 targets for 244 yards. His three-year average is 25 receptions, 30.3 targets, and 141.3 receiving yards per season, so the pass-game involvement is consistent even if the volume has varied.
Market ADP is 164.7 across two platforms, which works out to pick 14.09 in a 12-team draft — deep in the 14th round.
It matters a lot. He ran 205 times for 935 yards with nine total touchdowns in 2023, then just 83 carries for 310 yards and one touchdown in 2024, and 118 carries for 462 yards and two touchdowns in 2025. The range between his best and worst recent seasons is wide, and that variance is baked into any honest assessment of his outlook.