#194 overall · DET · 83.7 projected half-PPR pts · -43.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 163.6
Isiah Pacheco — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Isiah Pacheco's 2023 season is the reason his name still shows up in drafts. That year he carried the ball 205 times for 935 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns, added 44 receptions for 244 yards and 2 receiving scores, and lost just one fumble on the season. That is a legitimate three-down workload, and the underlying touch volume was real. The three-year averages tell a more complicated story: 135.3 rush attempts, 569 rush yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, 25 receptions, 141.3 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown per season. The 2023 peak is in there, but so are two much leaner campaigns. For a drafter willing to bet on a return toward that earlier form, the upside is documented.
What the model projects
The projection is 83.7 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 81.5 points, close to that figure. Pacheco sits at RB44 by draft value and #194 overall, placed in Tier 9. His draft value is -43.5, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The numbers are what they are: this is a below-replacement projection at his position, and the ranking reflects that.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 205 | 935 | 7 | 49 | 44 | 244 | 2 | 1 | 191.9 |
| 2024 | 83 | 310 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 79 | — | — | 50.9 |
| 2025 | 118 | 462 | 1 | 26 | 19 | 101 | 1 | — | 77.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 135.3 | 569 | 3 | 30.3 | 25 | 141.3 | 1 | 0.3 | 107.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces just 13.9 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile sits at 39.1 points, still a very limited season. The median is 81.5 points. The 75th percentile reaches 124.3 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons climbs to 173.3 points. That upper tail is meaningful: 173.3 points would represent a genuinely useful fantasy season. The spread from p10 to p90 is 159.4 points, which signals high variance. The floor is severe and the ceiling is real, and there is not much middle ground between them.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 163.6, which works out to pick 14.08 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round pick. Pacheco is #194 overall by draft value, so the market is currently taking him earlier than that rank. A drafter who wants him will need to spend a pick in the 14th round to secure him. Given the wide outcome band and a below-replacement projection, he fits best as a late-roster speculative add rather than a player you build around. His bye is Week 6, worth noting when constructing the back end of a roster.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
Over the past three seasons combined, he averages 135.3 rush attempts, 569 rush yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, 25 receptions, 141.3 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown per year. His 2023 season was the high-water mark: 205 carries, 935 rush yards, 7 rushing touchdowns, and 44 receptions. The two seasons since have been considerably lighter in volume.
The 90th-percentile simulated season produces 173.3 half-PPR points. That is the top 10% of modeled outcomes and represents a genuinely useful fantasy season. The 75th percentile is 124.3 points. Those ceilings exist, but the floor is equally real: the 10th percentile is just 13.9 points.
His draft value is -43.5, placing him at RB44 and #194 overall, which is below replacement level at the position. Market ADP is 163.6, or roughly pick 14.08 in a 12-team draft. At that stage of a draft the cost is low, but the projection and ranking reflect a player the model does not expect to contribute above replacement.
Pacheco's bye is Week 6.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →