Colby Parkinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Colby Parkinson's 2025 season was the clearest evidence yet that he can be a legitimate red-zone weapon. He caught 43 passes on 56 targets for 408 yards and hauled in 8 receiving touchdowns, the sharpest single-season output of his career. That touchdown total stands well above his three-year average of 3.7 per season, and his target volume has climbed in each of the past three years: 34 in 2023, 49 in 2024, 56 in 2025. For a drafter willing to roster a late-round tight end on a Rams offense that has shown a willingness to use the position in the end zone, Parkinson's 2025 résumé is the argument.

What the model projects

The projection is 50.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below his 2025 actual production, which reflects the three-year context: his per-season averages over 2023-2025 are 32.7 receptions, 46.3 targets, and 3.7 receiving touchdowns. The projection lands close to the median simulated season of 48.8 points. His draft value is -70.5, placing him TE34 and #266 overall in Tier 9. At this tier and rank, he projects below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 11.1 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile is 25.6 points, still a minimal return. The median sits at 48.8 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 73.2 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons land at or above 106.9 points. That upper tail is driven by the kind of touchdown clustering Parkinson showed in 2025. The floor is very low; the ceiling is a functional streamer or spot starter. The gap between those two outcomes is the central risk of rostering him.

How to draft him

Parkinson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. In practice, he is a free agent in most drafts. There is no pick cost to weigh here. If you carry him on a roster, it is as a late-addition tight end with a high-variance outcome profile, a bye in Week 11, and a three-year track record that shows modest volume with a spike in touchdowns in his most recent season.

He has no market ADP across tracked platforms, so he is not being drafted consistently enough to carry a pick cost. His projection is 50.1 half-PPR points and his draft value is -70.5, placing him TE34 and #266 overall in Tier 9, below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format.

He scored 8 receiving touchdowns in 2025 on 56 targets and 43 receptions. His three-year average from 2023 through 2025 is 3.7 receiving touchdowns per season, so the 2025 total was well above his own historical baseline. The projection of 50.1 points reflects that full three-year context rather than the 2025 peak alone.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 106.9 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 73.2 points. Those outcomes require the kind of touchdown volume Parkinson produced in 2025; the median simulated season is 48.8 points.

The 10th-percentile simulated season is 11.1 points for the full year, essentially a non-contributor. The 25th percentile is 25.6 points. His three-year receiving averages of 32.7 catches and 316.3 yards per season confirm that the floor is a low-volume role where touchdowns are the only path to fantasy relevance.