#214 overall · TEN · 76.6 projected half-PPR pts · -45.9 Draft Value
Calvin Ridley — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Calvin Ridley has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons. In 2023 he caught 76 passes on 136 targets for 1,016 yards and 8 receiving touchdowns. In 2024 he followed with 64 receptions on 120 targets for 1,017 yards, adding a rush touchdown on 8 carries. That is a receiver who has shown the ability to produce at volume when on the field. The three-year averages — 97.3 targets, 52.3 receptions, 778.7 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season — reflect the weight of a shortened 2025 in the mix, but the 2023 and 2024 floors are real data points worth keeping in mind.
What the model projects
The projection is 76.6 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That sits at WR67 and #214 overall, placing Ridley in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value is -45.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position. Tennessee's Week 9 bye is worth noting for roster management purposes.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 136 | 76 | 1016 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 189.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 55 | 1 | 120 | 64 | 1017 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167.2 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 17 | 303 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 38.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 5.7 | 26 | 0.3 | 97.3 | 52.3 | 778.7 | 4 | 0.7 | — | — | 132.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band tells the full story of the variance here. The 2023 season produced 1,016 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns; the 2024 season produced 1,017 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. The 2025 season produced 303 receiving yards, 17 receptions, and no touchdowns on 36 targets. That three-season arc — two productive years followed by a dramatically reduced one — is exactly what drives a wide outcome band. A season that trends back toward the 2023–2024 range looks very different from one that resembles 2025. The projection at 76.6 points reflects all of that history, and the band around it is wide.
How to draft him
Ridley's market ADP is unavailable — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable median. At WR67 and #214 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -45.9, he projects below replacement level. If you are targeting him as a late-round flier or a waiver-wire candidate, the 2023 and 2024 production gives you a ceiling to point to. The 2025 line is the reason the projection is where it is. Roster him with clear eyes about both.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 76.6 points and a draft value of -45.9, placing him below replacement level at WR67 and #214 overall in Tier 9. His market ADP is unavailable, meaning he is not being consistently drafted. He is a speculative add, not a core roster piece at current projections.
In 2023: 136 targets, 76 receptions, 1,016 receiving yards, 8 receiving touchdowns. In 2024: 120 targets, 64 receptions, 1,017 receiving yards, 4 receiving touchdowns, plus 1 rush touchdown. In 2025: 36 targets, 17 receptions, 303 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns. The three-year per-season averages are 97.3 targets, 52.3 receptions, 778.7 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns.
His market ADP is unavailable — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a median pick number. There is no reliable draft-slot data to act on.
Tennessee is on bye in Week 9, so plan your roster accordingly if you do roster him.