#157 overall · TEN · 97.1 projected half-PPR pts · -31.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 193.6
Calvin Ridley — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Calvin Ridley has back-to-back seasons of 1,000-plus receiving yards on his resume. In 2023 he caught 76 passes for 1,016 yards and 8 touchdowns on 136 targets. In 2024 he followed with 64 receptions for 1,017 yards, 4 receiving touchdowns, and 1 rushing touchdown on 120 targets. That is a receiver who has shown the ability to produce at a high volume when healthy and on the field. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 still reflect 97.3 targets, 52.3 receptions, 778.7 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season. For a drafter willing to accept the variance that comes with this profile, the 2023 and 2024 seasons are the ceiling reference points.
What the model projects
The projection is 97.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at WR61 and #157 overall, placing Ridley in Tier 9. His draft value is -31.6, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 83.8 points, which is below the point estimate of 97.1. The two numbers describe different things and both are worth knowing: the point estimate is the headline projection, and the median simulated season reflects where outcomes cluster most often.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 136 | 76 | 1016 | 8 | 9 | 23 | — | 1 | 189.9 |
| 2024 | 120 | 64 | 1017 | 4 | 8 | 55 | 1 | 1 | 167.2 |
| 2025 | 36 | 17 | 303 | — | — | — | — | — | 38.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 97.3 | 52.3 | 778.7 | 4 | 5.7 | 26 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 132.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 25.5 points (p10), and 25% finish at or below 49.8 points (p25). The median sits at 83.8 points (p50). Moving upward, 75% of simulated seasons finish at or below 119.8 points (p75), and the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 168.4 points or higher (p90). That is a spread of roughly 143 points between the p10 and p90 outcomes. The 2025 season, in which Ridley totaled just 17 receptions, 36 targets, and 303 receiving yards, anchors the downside of that band as a real historical data point. The 2023 and 2024 seasons anchor the upside. Both ends of the band have precedent.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Ridley carries a negative draft value at -31.6, and his rank of #157 overall reflects that. The market is currently drafting him at an average of pick 193.6 across two platforms, which works out to pick 2 of round 17 in a 12-team draft. At that draft slot, a drafter is spending a late-round pick on a player whose projection sits below replacement level but whose upside band reaches 168.4 points in a top-10% simulated season. His bye is Week 9. Roster construction context matters here: the wide range of outcomes means the outcome at this draft position is genuinely uncertain in both directions.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes, two consecutive ones. He posted 1,016 receiving yards in 2023 and 1,017 in 2024, making those the clearest upside reference points on his resume.
The projection of 97.1 half-PPR points produces a draft value of -31.6, meaning he projects below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks WR61 and #157 overall in Tier 9.
The band runs from 25.5 points at the p10 to 168.4 points at the p90. The 2025 season, in which he totaled 303 receiving yards and 36 targets, is a real-world example of what the low end of that band looks like.
The market average is pick 193.6, which translates to pick 2 of round 17 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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